British Columbia general election, 2005

Popular vote map by riding. Traditional areas of NDP support returned to the party fold after the preceding wipeout. Colourblind-friendly version

The 38th British Columbia general election was held on May 17, 2005, to elect members of the Legislative Assembly of the Province of British Columbia (BC), Canada. The BC Liberal Party formed the government of the province prior to this general election under the leadership of Premier Gordon Campbell. The New Democratic Party's two MLAs were not enough to qualify them for official opposition status.

The Liberals retained power, with a reduced majority. However, in the previous election in 2001, the Liberals had won an unprecedented 77 seats to the NDP's 2. It was therefore widely expected that the NDP would improve in 2005 at the expense of the Liberals.

Under amendments to the BC Constitution Act passed in 2001, BC elections are now held on fixed dates: the second Tuesday in May every four years.

The BC electoral reform referendum was held in conjunction with this election. This referendum asked voters whether or not they support the proposed electoral reforms of the Citizens' Assembly on Electoral Reform, which included switching to a single transferable vote system. Had it been approved by 60% of voters in 60% of ridings), the new electoral system would have been implemented for the general election in 2009. Although the proposed reform attracted a clear majority (58% in favour), the level of support was just short of that required for mandatory implementation. Premier Campbell has promised a second referendum on the issue in November 2008.

Results by party

Party		Party leader	# of candidates	Seats				Popular vote
				2001	Dissolution	Elected	% Change	#	%	Change	BC Liberal	Gordon Campbell	79	77	72	46	-40.3%	807,164	45.80%	-11.82%	New Democrats	Carole James	79	2	3	33	+1,550%	731,761	41.52%	+19.96%	Green	Adriane Carr	79	-	-	-	-	161,858	9.18%	-3.21%	Democratic Reform	Tom Morino	38	*	1	-	*	14,021	0.80%		Marijuana	Marc Emery	44	-	-	-	-	11,519	0.65%	-2.57%	Conservative	Barry Chilton	7	-	-	-	-	9,623	0.55%	+0.4%	Work Less	Conrad Schmidt	11	*	-	-	*	1,642	0.09%		Libertarian	(vacant)	6	*	-	-	*	1,054	0.06%		Platinum	Jeff Evans	11	*	-	-	*	779	0.04%		Western Refederation	(vacant)	4	*	-	-	*	675	0.04%		Social Credit	(vacant)	2	-	-	-	-	502	0.03%	-0.09%	Your Political Party	James Filippelli	1	*	-	-	*	442	0.03%		Western Canada Concept	Douglas Christie	2	*	-	-	*	387	0.02%		People's Front	Charles Boylan	5	-	-	-	-	383	0.02%	-0.03%	Youth Coalition	(vacant)	2	*	-	-	*	369	0.02%		Moderates	(vacant)	2	*	-	-	*	367	0.02%		Reform	(vacant)	1	-	-	-	-	365	0.02%	-0.2%	BC Party	Grant Mitton	2	*	-	-	*	362	0.02%		Sex	John Ince	3	*	-	-	*	305	0.02%		Bloc BC	Paddy Roberts	3	*	-	-	*	282	0.02%		Freedom	K.M. Keillor	2	-	-	-	-	282	0.02%	-	Communist	George Gidora	3	-	-	-	-	244	0.01%	-0.01%	Unity	Daniel Stelmacker	1	-	-	-	-	224	0.01%	-3.22%	Emerged Democracy	Tony Luck	1	*	-	-	*	151	0.01%		Patriot	Andrew Hokhold	2	-	-	-	-	90	0.01%	-	colspan="2"|Independents	23	-	1	-	-	16,152	0.92%	+0.00%	colspan="2"|No affiliation	5	-	-	-	-	1,447	0.08%	+0.03%
Vacant					2
Total				79	79	79		1,762,450	100%	+5.43%

* denotes that the party did not contest the election in question

Results by region

>|Green

Party name			Van.	Van. East Sub.	North Shore/ Sun. C.	Rich./ Delta/ Surrey	Van. Island	Fraser Valley	Interior	North	Total	rowspan="2"|BC Liberal	Seats:	5	4	4	7	4	7	9	6	46	Popular Vote:	44.3%	44.9%	49.6%	48.2%	40.7%	53.2%	44.9%	48.8%	45.8%	rowspan="2"|New Democrats	Seats:	5	4	1	5	9	1	6	2	33	Popular Vote:	43.7%	45.3%	30.7%	39.6%	47.1%	35.2%	41.5%	38.7%	41.5%
Total seats:			10	8	5	12	13	8	15	8	79
Parties that won no seats:
Popular Vote:	9.6%	7.7%	18.0%	7.1%	9.6%	8.9%	8.6%	7.1%	9.2%	Democratic Reform	Popular Vote:	0.1%	0.8%	0.1%	0.6%	1.4%	0.7%	0.9%	1.0%	0.8%	Marijuana	Popular Vote:	0.9%	0.5%	0.5%	0.7%	0.3%	1.1%	0.7%	0.9%	0.7%	Conservative	Popular Vote:	-	-	0.4%	0.1%	-	-	2.4%	-	0.6%	Work Less	Popular Vote:	0.4%	-	0.2%	xx	0.1%	-	-	-	0.1%	Libertarian	Popular Vote:	0.3%	0.1%	-	-	-	-	-	-	0.1%	Platinum	Popular Vote:	0.1%	0.1%	-	xx	-	0.2%	-	-	xx	Western Refederation	Popular Vote:	-	-	0.1%	-	0.1%	-	-	-	xx	Social Credit	Popular Vote:	0.1%	0.1%	-	-	-	-	-	-	xx	Your Political Party	Popular Vote:	-	0.2%	-	-	-	-	-	-	xx	Western Canada Concept	Popular Vote:	-	-	-	-	0.1%	-	-	-	xx	People's Front	Popular Vote:	0.1%	-	-	-	xx	-	xx	xx	xx	Youth Coalition	Popular Vote:	-	-	-	-	-	0.2%	-	-	xx	Moderates	Popular Vote:	-	-	-	-	-	0.2%	-	-	xx	Reform	Popular Vote:	-	-	0.3%	-	-	-	-	-	xx	BC Party	Popular Vote:	-	-	-	0.1%	-	-	-	0.2%	xx	Sex	Popular Vote:	0.1%	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	xx	Bloc BC	Popular Vote:	-	-	-	-	-	-	0.1%	-	xx	Freedom	Popular Vote:	-	-	-	-	xx	0.1%	-	-	xx	Communist	Popular Vote:	xx	-	-	xx	-	-	xx	-	xx	Unity	Popular Vote:	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	0.2%	xx	Emerged Democracy	Popular Vote:	-	-	-	0.1%	-	-	-	-	xx	Patriot	Popular Vote:	-	-	-	-	-	-	xx	-	xx	Independents/ No Affiliation	Popular Vote:	0.2%	0.3%	-	3.5%	0.5%	0.2%	0.7%	3.1%	1.0%

xx Denotes party received less than 0.1%

Timeline

Pre-campaign period

* August 23, 2001 - Bill 7, Constitution Amendment Act is passed, fixing the date of the election at May 17, 2005.
* November 13, 2002 - Liberal MLA Paul Nettleton accuses the government of a secret plan to privatize the BC Hydro power utility. He is removed from caucus several days later and sits as an Independent Liberal until the 2005 election, when he unsuccessfully ran in Prince George-Mount Robson against Shirley Bond.
*January 9, 2003 - Premier Gordon Campbell is arrested for driving under the influence of alcohol in Hawaii.
* November 23, 2003 - Carole James is elected as leader of the New Democratic Party of British Columbia.
* March 22, 2004 - Liberal MLA Elayne Brenzinger quits the caucus citing a "secret agenda" being understaken by Premier Campbell.
* October 22, 2004 - New Democrat Jagrup Brar wins a by-election in Surrey-Panorama Ridge with 53.6% of the vote, a swing of 33.7% to the NDP from the 2001 result. One of Brar's competitors was Green leader Adriane Carr who captured 8.4% of the vote.
* December 14, 2004 - Liberal Finance Minister Gary Collins abruptly resigns from cabinet and the legislature despite having been named co-chair of the Liberal re-election campaign a month earlier. The move requires Premier Campbell to undertake a minor cabinet shuffle.
* January 15, 2005 - The Democratic Reform British Columbia party is created out of a merger of the British Columbia Democratic Coalition and the All Nations Party of British Columbia. The party also boasts the support of key elements of the Reform Party of British Columbia. Prior to the official creation of this party, the Democratic Coalition and Reform BC jointly nominated a candidate for the Surrey-Panorama Ridge by-election.
* January 19, 2005 - Independent MLA Elayne Brenzinger joins DRBC, adding a third party to the Legislative Assembly for the first time since Gordon Wilson folded his Progressive Democratic Alliance party and joined the NDP.
* January 31, 2005 - Liberal MLA and former cabinet minister Sandy Santori resigns from his seat in the Legislature.
* February 15, 2005 - New Liberal Finance Minister Colin Hansen introduces what is widely viewed as an "election budget" which promised $1.3 billion in new spending, tax cuts and a surplus.
* March 11, 2005 - Attorney-General Geoff Plant announces that he will not seek re-election.
* March 15, 2005 - Canadian Broadcasting Corporation board chair Carole Taylor announces that she will run for the Liberals in the riding of Vancouver-Langara. Premier Gordon Campbell endorses Taylor's candidacy.
* March 29, 2005 - The consortium of television stations organizing the leaders' debate announces that the leaders of the Liberal, New Democratic, and Green parties will be invited to participate in the debate.
* April 13, 2005 - The NDP and Green Party release their platforms in Victoria.

Campaign period

*April 19, 2005 - The writ of election is issued (not "dropped" as in past elections), dissolving the Legislature and beginning the official campaign period.
*April 20, 2005 - The NDP becomes the first party to complete a province-wide nomination slate.
*April 22, 2005 - NDP candidate Rollie Keith withdraws his candidacy in Chilliwack-Kent after telling the Vancouver Province that he was "impressed" when he met Slobodan Milošević and that he did not believe there had been war crimes committed in Kosovo.
*May 3, 2005 - The leaders of the Liberal, NDP and Green parties meet in a televised debate. Commentators indicate the debate was either a draw or a win for Green leader Adriane Carr. An Ipsos-Reid poll conducted online following the debate showed that 33% of debate views thought the debate produced no clear winner, 31% felt NDP leader Carole James won, 23% felt Liberal leader Gordon Campbell won while only 12% saw Carr as the winner.
*May 17, 2005 - CBC projects a BC Liberal majority government at 9:05 p.m. local time.
*June 22, 2005 - Tim Stevenson, who lost to Lorne Mayencourt by 11 votes, asks the Supreme Court of British Columbia to order a new election in Vancouver-Burrard due to 70 ballots that could not be counted because they had not been initialed by election officials.

Opinion polls and predictions

BC battleground map based on the predictions aggregated by the Election Prediction Project.

BC battleground map based on the predictions by Will McMartin on thetyee.ca.

Below are the set of polls closest to the election, from organizations polling in British Columbia
* Strategic Counsel/The Globe and Mail/CTV (May 9–May 11, 2005): Lib 49%, NDP 36%, Green 13%, Other 2% [1]
* Ipsos-Reid/Global BC/Vancouver Sun/Victoria Times Colonist (May 8–May 10, 2005): Lib 47%, NDP 39%, Green 11%, Other 3% [2]
* Mustel Group (May 5–May 9, 2005): Lib 45%, NDP 40%, Green 12%, Other 3% [3]
* Robbins SCE Research (May 3–May 5, 2005): Lib 39%, NDP 40%, Green 13%, Other 8% [4]
* Nordic Research Group (March 28–April 6, 2005): Lib 43%, NDP 34%, Green 14%, Other 8% [5]

Besides the usual public polling by market research firms, other organizations have been attempting to predict the results of the upcoming election using alternate methods. Results suggest that all three projections below underestimated NDP seats and overestimated Liberal seats:

UBC's Election Stock Market tracks the prices of contracts whose value depend on election results: [6]
Popular vote: Lib 44.5%, NDP 35.9%, Green 13.9%, Other 5.3%
Seats: Lib 48.6 (61.5), NDP 29.4 (37.2), Other 1.6 (2.0)
(values in parentheses are values of actual contracts, in cents)

The Election Prediction Project aggregates submissions from the Internet and subjectively predicts winners based on the submissions (see methodology):
Seats: Lib 50, NDP 29, Other 0

Will McMartin at the progressive online newspaper The Tyee makes his predictions by looking at "historic election results and selected demographics, as well as public opinion polls, regional sources and input from Election Central readers" (see details):
Seats: Lib 51, NDP 28, Other 0

Political parties

British Columbia has Canada's least restrictive elections laws with regard to political party registration, and consequently there are currently nearly 50 parties registered with Elections BC, by far the most of any jurisdiction in the country. 25 parties are contesting the 2005 election, also a considerably greater number than anywhere else in Canada.

British Columbia Liberal Party

Leader: Gordon Campbell The BC Liberals won 77 of 79 seats in the 2001 election. At dissolution, the party held 72 seats. One member elected as a Liberal left the party to sit as a member of Democratic Reform British Columbia; one member elected as a Liberal left to sit as an independent; the party lost one by-election to the opposition New Democratic Party; and two former Liberal seats were vacant when the election was called. In 2005 election, the Liberal party dropped from 72 to 46 seats in the legislature, yet still won the election.

New Democratic Party of British Columbia

Leader: Carole James The NDP's legislative caucus was reduced from a majority to just two seats in the 2001 election. It won another seat in an October 2004 by-election to bring the total to three. Carole James led the NDP to 33 seats to become the Leader of the Opposition.

Green Party of British Columbia

Leader: Adriane Carr The Green Party ran 72 candidates in 2001, winning 12 percent of the vote but no seats in the legislature. Some argued that the Green Party support peaked in 2001, drawing on dissatisfied NDP voters, and they would remain incapable of winning a seat in 2005 under the First-Past-the-Post system; others believed that if there had been four or more competitive parties in this election, the Greens might elect a handful of members. The Greens may benefit if the 2009 election is conducted using the proposed BC-STV system. In 2005, the Greens received 9% of the popular vote and no seats.

Democratic Reform British Columbia

Leader: Tom Morino Democratic Reform British Columbia is a new party created in early 2005 by the merger of the British Columbia Democratic Coalition—a coalition of minor centrist parties— with the All Nations Party of British Columbia and key elements of the Reform BC. Independent MLA Elayne Brenzinger, a former Liberal, became DRBC's first MLA on January 19, 2005. Controversially, no invitation was extended for Morino to participate in the leader's debate.

British Columbia Marijuana Party

Leader: Marc Emery The BC Marijuana Party nominated 43 candidates in this election. It was the only party other than the Liberals and NDP to run candidates in all 79 districts in 2001. The party chose not to run in certain districts and instead endorse New Democrat and Green candidates who publicly favour the legalization of marijuana. Party founder Marc Emery ran against Solicitor General Rich Coleman, an anti-drug hardliner, in staunchly conservative Fort Langley-Aldergrove. He gained controversy early in the campaign for claiming that the government spends too much money on senior citizens.

Minor parties

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