Red state vs. blue state divide
:
Blue States redirects here. For the musical band of that name, see
Blue States (band).
Red States and
Blue States refer to those
U.S. states whose residents predominantly vote for the
Republican Party or
Democratic Party presidential candidates respectively. The term became ubiquitous following the
2000 presidential election.
(See section below on Origins of current color scheme.)The maps that have emerged from recent U.S. elections follow a sharply-defined geographical pattern. The Red states tend to fall in
the South, the
Great Plains, and the
Intermountain West, with the Blue states in the
Northeast, the
Upper Midwest and the
West Coast.
The
Midwest is rather divided. The more rural midwestern states of
Iowa and
Indiana are considered to be red, although Iowa is often considered to be a swing state as well, having given its support to
Bill Clinton in 1992 and 1996 and
Al Gore in 2000. The states that have larger urban areas such as Illinois (
Chicago), Michigan (
Detroit), Wisconsin (
Milwaukee,
Madison), and Minnesota (
Minneapolis-St. Paul) are considered to be Blue. The strongest Blue state in the midwest is by far
Illinois, in which both Kerry and Gore had over 10% margin wins in 2004 and 2000, lending to the strength of its tongue-in-cheek designation as being the United States' "
Third Coast".
The county-by-county and district-by-district maps reveal that the true nature of the divide is between urban areas/inner suburbs and outer suburbs/rural areas. In "solidly Blue" states like California and New York, most of the counties outside the major urban areas voted for Bush, while in "solidly Red" states, most of the urban areas voted for John Kerry (with a large exception for
Phoenix, Arizona, one of the largest urban centers in the U.S. and consistently Republican by a substantial margin.)
Solid Red states are
Alaska,
Idaho,
Indiana,
Kansas,
Nebraska,
Oklahoma,
North Dakota,
South Dakota,
Utah,
Virginia and
Wyoming, which have not voted for a Democratic presidential candidate since
1964. Of special note is
North Dakota, which is solidly Red in presidential elections but has an all-Democratic Congressional delegation. Other strong Red states include
Alabama,
Mississippi,
North Carolina,
South Carolina and
Texas, none of which have voted Democratic since
1976. Many of these states, particularly those in the
South, were once Democratic strongholds, but are now reliable supporters of Republican candidates. Of these states,
Idaho is the "most" Republican, voting President Bush in 2004 by 68% (though Bush won
Utah by more).
Alaska,
New Hampshire, and
Wyoming in addition to
Idaho have all Republicans in their Congressional Delegations.
Perhaps the reddest of the red states are the 10 states that showed more people approving of President Bush in August 2005 than those disapproving. These ten states, starting with highest support [
1], were:
Idaho,
Wyoming,
Utah,
Nebraska,
Texas,
Alabama,
North Dakota,
Montana,
Oklahoma, and
Mississippi. It is worth noting that
Virginia, long a "Red state," is
as of 2005 showing very tepid support (58%
disapproving vs. 40% approving) [
2] for the President. Additionally, Virginia elected Democrats to the governorship in 2001 and 2005 â€"
Mark Warner and
Tim Kaine respectively. Many speculate that with the growth of
Northern Virginia, it may become a swing state in the near future.
As of 2006, only four states in the entire nation have a net approval of
George W. Bush. A large number of states which are traditionally considered "Red" such as
Colorado,
Ohio,
Iowa,
Nevada,
New Mexico and
Arkansas have net disapproval ratings of higher than 60%.[
3]
States currently thought to be solidly "Blue" include
California,
Oregon,
Washington,
Hawaii,
New Jersey,
New York,
Maryland,
Connecticut,
Massachusetts,
Illinois,
Vermont, and
Rhode Island. As well, the
District of Columbia, while not a state, does vote in presidential elections, and has been solidly "Blue". Though some of these states have voted for Republican candidates as recently as the 1980s (most notably in
1984, when
Ronald Reagan carried 49 states, with Minnesota and the District of Columbia being the two holdouts for
Walter Mondale), they have recently supported Democratic candidates by significant margins. Of these states, Massachusetts is the "most" Democratic. In his
2004 presidential bid,
John Kerry won Massachusetts, his home state, with 62% of its vote. But Massachusetts' title as "most Democratic state" is not dependent solely on the margin of victory of a favorite son. In 1972, Massachusetts was the
only state carried by Democratic nominee
George McGovern. In addition, Massachusetts is the only large state to have an all-Democratic Congressional delegation. Two small states,
Hawaii and
North Dakota, also have all-Democratic delegations, but Massachusetts has more than three times the number of representatives in the House of Representatives as these two states
combined.
Maryland is generally considered to be the second "Bluest" (or most Democratic) state in the nation.
Red states and Blue states have several
demographic differences from each other. The association between colors and demographics was notably made in a column by
Mike Barnicle, and reinforced in a controversial response from
Paul Begala (though the association between demographics and voting patterns was well known before that). The most common observation is that the majority of Red states tend to feature more rural area, with agriculture being one of the most important industries (Although California is assumed to be a blue state, agriculture is the largest industry). The majority of Blue states tend to be more urban, have higher
per capita income (although it should be noted that a significant majority of the very wealthiest Americans support the GOP), and are more multicultural (even in such "Blue" strongholds as New York and California, the
GOP won the slight majority of the white vote in 2004). These demographic trends, along with less obvious correlations, have been analysed in detail by conservative pundit
Steve Sailer.
The demographic differences between smaller geographical areas applies as well to counties, which follow the same trend as states. The results of the 2004 presidential election support this, as even Red states contain Blue counties, particularly counties that include major cities. For example, out of the 17 counties that constitute
Nevada, only
Clark County was won by Democratic candidate
John Kerry. Not only is Clark County the most populous county in Nevada, but its
county seat is the city of
Las Vegas. The second-closest county—in which Republican candidate
George W. Bush won by the slimmest margin—was
Washoe County. The
county seat of Washoe County is the city of
Reno. In
Colorado, the cities of
Denver and
Boulder, along with many of their suburbs, vote overwhelmingly Democratic.
However, one exception to this is probably
Indiana, where in the 2004 presidential elections
Allen County, home to the state's second-largest city of
Fort Wayne, voted Bush by 63%. In addition,
Vanderburgh County, home to the state's third-largest city of
Evansville, voted Bush by 59%.
Marion County, home of
Indianapolis, was only a win for Kerry by a 1% margin.
Purple States
The political and demographic applications of the terms have led to a temptation to presume this arbitrary classification is a clear-cut and fundamental
cultural division. Given the general nature and common perception of the two parties, "red state" implies a conservative region or a more conservative type of American, and "blue state" implies a liberal region or a more liberal type of American. But the distinction between the two groups of states is hardly so simplistic. The analysis that suggests political, cultural, and demographic differences between the states is more accurate when applied to smaller geographical areas. Pennsylvania, for example, shows "red" characteristics in the
Westsylvania interior, but "blue" characteristics around the urban centers of
Philadelphia and
Pittsburgh. Political consultant
James Carville has described Pennsylvania as "Philadelphia and Pittsburgh, with
Alabama in between," suggesting that Pennsylvania, like several other blue states, would be solid red without its cities, due to its remainder's rural and religious, and thus socially conservative, nature.
 |
Cartogram of the 2004 presidential election results. |
Traditionally, the practice of designating a U.S. state as "red" or "blue" is based on the
winner-take-all system employed for presidential elections by 48 of the 50 U.S. states (Nebraska and Maine being the exceptions), and the
District of Columbia. Despite the prevalent
winner-take-all practice, the minority always gets a sizeable vote. Because of this, a third term has emerged, referring to these closely-divided states as
purple states. Furthermore, it could be argued that all states are "purple" to varying degrees and that the "red vs. blue" division is far from an accurate description of US culture.
All states were consistent in voting for President Bush or his challenger in the 2000 and 2004 presidential elections except for three:
New Mexico (Gore in '00 and Bush in '04),
Iowa (Gore in '00 and Bush in '04) and
New Hampshire (Bush in '00 and Kerry in '04). The 2004 election showed two of these three states to be true to the presidential preferences of their respective regions, creating a greater regional separation; thus, an argument that the country is more divided from the 2000 election. All three of those states were very close in both elections.
The division between red states and blue states has triggered a pronounced introspection among blue staters and red staters. Feelings of cultural and political
polarization, which have gained increased media attention since the 2004 election, have led to increased mutual feelings of alienation and enmity. These attitudes have led to the often jocular suggestion that a red state-blue state secession is in order. The
Jesusland map is one such joke, a
satirical map that redraws the U.S.-
Canada border to reflect this sociopolitical schism.
The polarization has been present for only two close elections (2000 and 2004). In the 1996 election, 31 U.S. states were "blue" and 19 "red" (though at the time the colors were not used consistently by the major networks). One thing that has been more consistent over this period is that the average "blue" state has a greater number of people and electoral votes than does the average "red" state. (When
George W. Bush won 31 states in 2004, he gathered 286 electoral votes â€" an average of 9 electoral votes for each state won. When
Bill Clinton won 31 states in 1996, he tallied 379 electoral votes â€" an average of 12 electoral votes per state carried.)
Viewing the nation as divided into two camps requires ignoring the largest single group of Americans: those who don't vote. In the 2000 election only about 54 percent of eligible voters were motivated enough to vote. In 2004, after the loudest most-expensive get-out-the-vote campaigns by both ideological camps, the percentage who voted rose only a few points. Hence 2004 set an all-time national record with more than 80 million eligible voters taking a pass, far more than voted for either George W. Bush or John Kerry.
In fact no Republican or Democratic nominee has attracted as much as 30 percent of eligible voters since
Ronald Reagan in 1984. Close to half of all Americans, it appears, are neither "red" nor "blue" -- at least not strongly enough to vote either way.
The
winner-take-all strategy of voting has led to the resurgence of a debate about whether a national
popular vote should be taken rather than the currently-instituted
electoral system. Proponents of the popular vote refer to the (very small) number of candidates who have won the Presidency despite not receiving a plurality of individual votes, including George W. Bush in 2000. Proponents of the current system, however, point out that the right to choose how to award a state's electoral college votes is guaranteed to the state by the
United States Constitution, and was part of the Founders' original plan for the country.
Interest is growing in the
National Popular Vote Campaign, which uses a state by state based platform of reform rather than a constitutional amendment to attempt to institute the popular vote.
During U.S. national elections, media outlets commonly display election results on a map of U.S. statesâ€"with each state assigned a color based on which party's candidate won the state, as nearly all states award the sum of their
electoral votes in a
winner-take-all contest (the exceptions being
Maine and Nebraska). Because the United States has a
de facto two-party system, the national colors of red and blue came to be reserved for the two major parties.
Third-party candidates rarely win any states, but media outlets are prepared with other arbitrary colors for noteworthy third party showings, such as green for the
Green party and white for the
Reform party.
With the adoption of color television in the 1960s (and continuing with increased use of color in newspapers in the 1980s and 1990s) media outlets took advantage of this in their electoral maps on election night. But until the 2000 election, there was no consensus on color schemes among the networks. For example, from 1972 until at least 1992, NBC consistently showed Republican-won states in blue, and Democratic-won states in red. But other networks used other patterns. ABC, in at least two presidential elections during this time, used yellow for one major party and blue for the other. However, in 2000, for the first time ever, all the major broadcast networks and all the cable news outlets utilized the same color scheme: red for Republicans and blue for Democrats.
Partly as a result of this first-time universal color-coding, the terms
Red States and
Blue States entered popular usage in the weeks following the
2000 presidential election. Additionally, the closeness of the disputed election kept the colored maps in the public view for longer than usual, and red and blue thus became fixed in the media and in many people's minds.[
4]
U.S. state counties and
congressional districts may also be called "Red" or "Blue" if their residents predominantly vote for one party or another in any given election. The
District of Columbia, though not a state, can also be called "Blue" because it has voted for the Democrat in every election since its residents were first allowed to vote for President. In addition, the term "Red-stater" or "Blue-stater" may refer to individuals who vote for, are affiliated with, or otherwise identify primarily with the Republican Party or Democratic Party, respectively. Less common is the practice of referring to residents of "Red States" and "Blue States" as "Red-staters" and "Blue-staters" respectively. Also, there have been Red areas in Blue States (
San Diego and
Orange County, California and
Ottawa County, Michigan), and Blue areas in Red States (
Denver, Colorado,
Tucson, Arizona,
Cleveland, Ohio and
Austin, Texas).
The choice of colors in this divide is counterintuitive to many international observers, as throughout the world, especially in
Europe and
Canada, red is commonly the designated colour for parties representing labor and/or leftist interests[
5][
6], which in the United States would be more closely correlated with the
Democratic Party.
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee officially adopted the color scheme when it launched a national "Red to Blue Program" in 2006.[
7] Otherwise the color scheme is unofficial and informal, but is widely recognized by all media and commentators.
*
Swing state*
United States presidential election maps*
Purple America*
Maps and cartograms of the 2004 presidential election results, adjusting Red State/ Blue State maps for voting population rather than geographic area alone.
*
CityRanks.com - a Google Maps mashup showing the correlation between population density and the Red State/Blue State phenomenon in an interactive map.
*
One Nation, Slightly Divisible - David Brooks (subscription required)
*Washington Post series:
**
For a Conservative, Life is Sweet in Sugar Land, Tex.**
A Liberal Life in the City by the Bay*
Federal Review Composite Poll - 2004 Electoral College Projection*
Washington Post "Elephants Are Red, Donkeys Are Blue"*
AIGA historical explanation from September 2004*
Google Answers: Red state/blue state*
CNN "Learn the signs of your political colors" from September 2001*
Election maps from December, 2000*
Choosing colors based on incumbent vs. challenger victory from November, 2004*
Blue State of Mind, an online community*
BlueStatesRedStates.com A Purple site for Red & Blue times
