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Accuweather/Oct 4 in Pa

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Expert: - 8/25/2008


Question
We live Chester County and are having a huge party on October 4th. Being smart, we decided to look at the Farmer's Almanac for past ongoings of that day, and it has rained for the past three years.  What are the chances it will rain this year as well?

Answer
Carrie,

Early October is typically a dry time of the year. Thunderstorm season is pretty much over with by then, and it is too early for the large-scale rainstorms that occur later in the fall. The wild card at that time of year is the tropics. If we are being affected, either directly or indirectly by a tropical storm or hurricane, then all bets are off. If that happens, then we could be dealing with torrential rains. However, if there isn't any tropical connection, then it normally rains only about once every four days, and typically it doesn't rain that much.
I hope this helped.

Sincerely,

Dave Dombek
AccuWeather.com

Accuweather

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Dave Dombek

Expertise

A weather enthusiast from an early age, Dave Dombek is now an AccuWeather meteorology expert.

Experience

Dave received his B.S. degree in meteorology from the Pennsylvania State University in May of 1980. Dave joined AccuWeather in July of 1980, beginning in the Snow Warning Service late that fall after his few month period of training. Within a short period of time, Dave got involved in radio broadcasting. He spent over 25 years broadcasting forecasts on radio stations throughout the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast states, and has also done newspaper forecasts and television briefings. Currently, Dave is the lead television briefer for all of AccuWeather's television clients in the northeatern quarter of the nation. In his daily forecasting routine, Dave helps coordinate the forecasts in the northeastern part of the country. He is also the Director of Forecaster Hiring and is in charge of hiring new meteorologists. Finally, Dave is the supervisor of the climatology department at AccuWeather. An avid outdoorsman, Dave enjoys hunting and trout fishing. He also enjoys watching football and is a student of history and current events. If Dave doesn't already have enough on his plate, he is married with two teenage daughters. He also leads a small Messianic congregation in the State College, Pa. area.

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