Expert: Dave Dombek - 8/14/2006

Question
Dear Dave,
The Weather Channnel has done a series on weather disasters.  They propose that a major hurricane could hit New York City.  But is it more likely that some places are more prone to hurricanes than others.  For example hurricanes don't go from west to east (Carribean to Africa.)  The upper winds determine the overall direction of hurricanes as does geography and maybe ocean currents.  Therefore since the prevailing wind pattern is west to east at NYC's latitude and the Gulf Stream goes northeast, wouldn't that kind of protect NYCity from taking a hit coming from the southeast?  It seems that where hurricanes make landfall is more determined by where land gets in the wind/current's path for the hurricane.  So NYC might make some planning, but the probability isn't the same as a New Orleans, Florida, or NorthCarolina Coast, or LongIsland and the New England coast.  What do you think and shouldn't we call the Weather channel's showmanship?
Sincerely,
Linda Emerson

Answer
Linda,
It's all about sensationalism and market ratings, plain and simple! Think about how much different the series would seem if TWC said that a major huurricane could hit Nantuckett Island! I'm sure that would not get nearly as much advertising and sponsorship support as a potential disaster for NYC.
In any case, a major hurricane is MUCH MORE LIKELY to hit Long Island...especially eastern Suffolk County and southeast New England than it is NYC because of the shape of the coast, and the other factors that you had already mentioned.


Sincerely,

Dave Dombek
Expert Senior Meteorologist
AccuWeather.com