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Accuweather/Warm Waters=Warm Winter?

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Expert: - 11/9/2002


Question
Dave:

I have emailed you before, and your timely response and indepth answer was fantastic. That is why i want to challenge you yet again. It seems that the waters off the northeast coast are very warm for this time of year (I live on Long Island). Coincidently, everyone has been talking about the winter forecast and their predictions. And me, being the snowlover/weather nut that i am, have been following what's been said for sometime now. I am hoping for a snowy winter, but my gut feeling lately, is that this warm water will interfere with my chances of seeing the white stuff this winter. Givin that no one varible can be looked at to determine a long range forecast,how much of a factor will it be overall? Keep up the good work, and i hope to hear from you soon

Sincerely
Kevin Grogan
Long Island, NY

Answer
Kevin,
I'm not sure that water temperatures are all that warm. Just yesterday (Friday, November 8th), the water temperature at Atlantic City, New Jersey was down to 51 degrees. That is down considerably from just a few weeks ago, thanks to all of the chilly weather that has occured recently.
Keep in mind that right along the East Coast, the true "snow season" does not really kick in until about the middle of December, and in some years not until after New Years Day. On Long Island, the most likely time of the year for snow to fall is from about Jannuary 7th through the end of February. During that period, in a "normal" winter, odds are either even for snow vs. rain, and often the tilt goes toward snow. So, while I understand you are anxious for winter weather to get underway, you have to realize that on Long Island, you will probably have to wait awhile longer. I am a weather nut as well, and back here in central Pennsylvania, we don't have as long to wait as you do. We have already had a 4-5 inch wet snowfall across the region last week which brought down many tree limbs and caused power outages across the area!
My gut feeling (not an official forecast) about this coming winter is that temperatures will be near to slightly above normal due to the weak El Nino. However, it will be snowier than previous winters due to an active southern branch of the jet stream.

Sincerely,

Dave Dombek
Expert Senior Meteorologist
AccuWeather.com

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Dave Dombek

Expertise

A weather enthusiast from an early age, Dave Dombek is now an AccuWeather meteorology expert.

Experience

Dave received his B.S. degree in meteorology from the Pennsylvania State University in May of 1980. Dave joined AccuWeather in July of 1980, beginning in the Snow Warning Service late that fall after his few month period of training. Within a short period of time, Dave got involved in radio broadcasting. He spent over 25 years broadcasting forecasts on radio stations throughout the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast states, and has also done newspaper forecasts and television briefings. Currently, Dave is the lead television briefer for all of AccuWeather's television clients in the northeatern quarter of the nation. In his daily forecasting routine, Dave helps coordinate the forecasts in the northeastern part of the country. He is also the Director of Forecaster Hiring and is in charge of hiring new meteorologists. Finally, Dave is the supervisor of the climatology department at AccuWeather. An avid outdoorsman, Dave enjoys hunting and trout fishing. He also enjoys watching football and is a student of history and current events. If Dave doesn't already have enough on his plate, he is married with two teenage daughters. He also leads a small Messianic congregation in the State College, Pa. area.

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