Expert: Sherman D. - 3/20/2004

Question
Hello, I am not sure you can help in this subject.. but, this is the problem I am working.  (I am also including the answer I gave but, it is incorrect) need help understanding what I do to answer this...


The answer I gave that was incorrect:  
125 in favor of the law and 120 against, using proportion analysis:
N=245
Test Statistic=5.2764485
P=0.00025
Very strong evidence against the Null

The instructor said it is wrong, that the z-value would not be that high


The question:
A political action committee decided to poll its membership to determine if they were in favor of a certain potential law, similar to gun control. The results that came back were 125 in favor of the law, and 120 against. Given that the crew at the center would use the fact that the simple majority would win, Johnny Statman, said I don't think that is appropriate decision, and we really need to need to have our group oppose the law. How do you suppose he came up with that conclusion? What kind of analysis did he do to arrive at his decision.


Answer
As far as your Test Statistic and your P = part, i don't know how you got it, or i am unfamiliar with that.

But here is what i get

((125)/(125 + 120) * 100 = (125/245) * 100 = 51.02041%

Now according to most places, if a side gets 51%, then that side would win.

That is what i got. I don't know if that is correct or not.