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Aerospace/Aviation/Airline growth rate in emerging markets.

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Expert: - 6/28/2010


Question
Hi David,

I am doing some research into expected growth in airlines in emerging markets. I was wondering if you knew by how much the aviation industry is expected to grow in excess of a countries GDP. Particularly in emerging markets.

Answer
Hi, Rowan:

I am sorry, but, I do not have good data about aviation growth in emerging markets.  However, a good indicator would be the number of aircraft orders that the markets you are interested in have in place with Boeing and with Airbus.  For example, right now airlines in India and China have a large number of Boeing 787 Dreamliners and B-737s and Airbus A 350's and A-320s on order.  And, there is a plan for Airbus to build some A-320s in China.  So, that is a good sign of growth right there.  There are also a large amount of aircraft orders eminating from airlines in the United Arab Emiriates (UAE).  While I do not have exact numbers, I would say that those three areas are worth watching for growth.

There is some information available of this nature from the International Civil Aviation Organization (or ICAO) in Montreal.  Go to www.icao.int for more information.  Also, you can consult www.airbus.com and www.boeing.com for aircraft order information.  Also, do a Google or Bing or Yahoo search for Boeing vs. Airbus and that should give you some of the details.  There is also some good forecast information at www.airlines.org  which is the website of the US "AIR TRANSPORT ASSOCIATION"   (look on their economics page).

I wish you the best,

David A. NewMyer

Aerospace/Aviation

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David A. NewMyer

Expertise

I can answer questions about aviation industry employment, airports and airport planning and aviation industry regulation (overall regulation of the industry--who regulates what and why).

Experience

I have worked in aviation since the late 1960s, primarily in airports, airport planning and in aviation education. I have done major research in aviation employment and in graduate education in aviation.

Organizations
University Aviation Association since 1982 (President, 2009-2010)

Publications
Collegiate Aviation Review Journal of Aviation/Aerospace Education and Research Journal of Air Transportation ATEA Journal SIU Press

Education/Credentials
B. S. in History and Government, University of Redlands, California, 1969 M. A. in Political Science (Metropolitan Studies), Drew University, Madison, New Jersey, 1971 M. S. in Transportation, Northwestern University, Evanston, Illinois, 1974 Ph.D. in Education (Education Aministration and Higher Education), Southern Illinois University Carbonale, 1987

Awards and Honors
United Airlines William Wheatley Award from the University Aviation Association, 1994 for excellence in Post Secondary Aviation Education Sorensen Award for Excellence in Research, University Aviation Association, 2008

Past/Present Clients
Prepared airport master plan and environmental assessment reports for several Illinois Airports; prepared two separate airport systems plans for the Chicago area

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