Expert: Matthew Smith - 11/19/2008

Question
Hi! Hope this is in your realm and not a bother!

I'm flying to Mexico in March. Do airlines list March prices higher before or after Christmas? Is a further advance cheaper or do prices drop after the holidays?

Thanks so much!!

Answer
Christmas should not have an effect on the prices of March flights.

Having said that, there are a bunch of variables that could have an impact on ticket prices between now and then: Cost of Oil, bailout packages, mergers, massive unemployment, etc.  But will these things move prices up or down?  No one can know.

The only variable that a yield and price analyst can really put his or her finger on is the demand for a flight to Mexico at that time.  Prices will also go higher if there is a big sporting event, Spring Break, or convention going on at that time.

The big factor is time.  Generally speaking, tickets are cheaper the farther in advance you buy them.  The big trigger days are the 14-day prior and the 7-day prior.  Once you get to within two weeks of a trip, the prices shoot up.  Once you get within a week of the trip, the prices shoot WAY up.

On the odd occasion, a price will drop over time because people are not buying that itinerary as quickly as the yield analyst anticipated (i.e. the demand is much less).  I recently saw an ad on TV that one of the on-line ticket brokers has a deal that if someone buys a ticket with the same itinerary as yours for a lower price, they refund the difference to you.  This is sort of a guarantee against a drop in ticket prices.

Sorry this is murky, but with so many unknown variables in the economy at this point, it is difficult to predict where prices are going.  Obviously, airlines want them to go up and consumers want them to go down.  But day-to-day variations can defy general trends.  Generally speaking, you are better off buying sooner than later.

I hope this has been of some help.  If I have been too vague, just write back.