Expert: John J. Shea - 9/13/2010

Question
Hi Mr Shea,

In Ancient World Archaeology, how precise is the dating of
the cities? For example, if Archaeology says that certain
city in the Middle East was inhabited during 2500 BCE until
1800 BCE, and then it was abandoned, and then inhabited
again between 1000 BCE and 500 BCE. How certain is that
information? Can we be sure about that or is it just the
best theory we've got?

Thank you,
Martin

Answer
Hi Martin
If the dates are written as BCE, that implies they are calendar years.
This further implies either an historical date known from written records (king lists and similar such things) or a calibrated radiocarbon dates.  Calibrated radiocarbon dates in this time range have standard errors of usually around 100 years or less. This means there is a 67% chance the actual age of the date is within 100 years of the date.  There is a 95% chance that it is within 200 years.  Radiocarbon dating has its quirks, but it is the best geochronological tool we archaeologists have at our disposal.
Cheers,
John Shea