Expert: Saurabh Kudesia - 1/2/2006

Question
When we might expect the machines to exceed human intelligence?

Answer
Hi,

Interesting question indeed!!

The core of this question is the turing test. The essence of the Turing Test revolves around whether a computer can successfully impersonate a human. The test is to be put into practice under a set of detailed conditions which rely on human judges being connected with test subjects (a computer and a person) solely via an instant messaging system or its equivalent. That is, the only information which will pass between the parties is text. To pass the test, a computer would have to be capable of communicating via this medium at least as competently as a person. There is no restriction on the subject matter; anything within the scope of human experience in reality or imagination is fair game. This is a very broad canvas encompassing all of the possibilities of discussion about art, science, personal history, and social relationships. Exploring linkages between the realms is also fair game, allowing for unusual but illustrative analogies and metaphors. It is such a broad canvas, in my view, that it is impossible to foresee when, or even if, a machine intelligence will be able to paint a picture which can fool a human judge.

According to Ray Kurzweil, Founder and CEO Kurzweil Educational Systems, and one of the pioneer in machine intelligence, the software to achieve human level intelligence in a machine will take longer, but through noninvasive scanning technologies we will be able to reverse engineer human intelligence and that will be time when machine intelligence starts competing with human intelligence. As per current technological trends, the time could be anywhere between 2047 -2080 AD and is going to be dependent on other technological advancement like neural and fuzzy logic and even nano technology which promises to replicate human intelligence at core level.

But as someone said very correctly "both science and nature are unpredictable", this topic has lot of room for discussions and hot debate before the reality can be achieved.

Regards
Saurabh