Expert: Philip Stahl - 1/25/2010

Question
Mr. Stahl

The movie 2012 was released last year.  I have recently read numerous article on sunspots and solar flares.  I was wondering if any current research is being conducted to support or dispute the concern regarding sunspots or if some other interesting research is on the rise.

What are your thoughts?  

Answer
Hello,

There has been so much babble written concerning solar cycle 24 (the alleged "missing cycle") that itemizing it all would take the better part of a day. Suffice it to say that having been able to attend the 40th meeting of the Solar Physics Division (last June - where I also presented a paper) definitely helped in clarifying the issues, especially in terms of holding back the sea of codswallop that has been churned out recently by global warming deniers. (In the wake of the so-called 'climate-gate' email hacking.)

Most of these naysayers and pseudo-skeptics have latched on to solar cycle 24 as an escape hatch, reasoning that because the Maunder Minimum was effectively a "missing" cycle (few or no spots) and ushered in a brutally much colder span of ~ 70 years, than the same may be true now. And then, because of this assumed new "minimum" we shall not have to fret over carbon-based human engendered warming!

However, the papers that were delivered at the SPD conference more than showed this viewpoint to be baseless. Also, the extrapolations to a "new Maunder minimum" (or any significant minimum) premature and unjustified.

As noted by Prof. Frank Hill in his lecture 'A Helioseismic Comparison of the Solar Minima Preceding Cycles 23 and 24', the current cycle is not yet exceptional - certainly in terms of spotless days aggregated.

While 286 total spotless days have been accumulated in 2008, and ~140 so far this year, there have been other years with more, including: 311 spotless says in 1913, and 287 spotless days for 1901.

At the same time, it is also true that we currently have the lowest solar wind pressure since cycle 15, as well as the lowest irradiance in the modern (space observation) era. However, this is not as low as that recorded for cycles 13-14. (Hence talk of a "mini ice age" are way off kilter and pure exaggeration). As for climate issues, do few or no spots for cycle 24 mean it will be overall weaker than cycle 23, and hence portend colder temperatures?

This case also can't be made, since we have the example of a very weak cycle (16) which led to a much more energetic and active one (cycle 17). Thus, cycle 24 could actually turn out to be very active cycle with higher solar irradiance that actually reinforces man-made global warming as opposed to cancelling it.

None of this has anything at all to do with '2012' which is pure fiction and baloney. Also - there isn't anything novel I have seen on the solar flare-sunspot connection angle.

The primary orientation of current work is on the so-called "missing spots" in solar cycle 24 and to do with the possible need for better solar cycle modeling so that observations fall more in line with what solar cycle theories call for.

One angle being examined is that the existing "dynamo" model used to explain solar cycles is just too simple. We may need lots more in the way of better observations - especially of what are called "meriodonal flows" closer to the solar surface.

One common theme that emerged out of the SPD Meeting: we need much much higher resolution at all wavelengths, bands.