AboutPhilip A. Stahl Expertise I specialize in stellar and solar astrophysics. Can answer any questions pertaining to these areas, the spectroscopic analysis of stars as well as the magneto-hydrodynamics of sunspots and solar flares. Sorry No homework problems done or research projects! I will provide hints on solutions.
Experience Have published papers on the relationship between sunspot morphology and solar flares; discovery of SID flares related to this, constructed computerized stellar models; MHD research.
Organizations American Astronomical Society (Solar physics and Dynamical astronomy divisions), American Geophysical Union, American Mathematical Society, Intertel.
Publications Solar Physics, Journal of the Royal Astronomical Society of Canada, Journal of the Barbados Astronomical Society, Meudon Solar Flare Proceedings (Meudon, France)
Education/Credentials B.A. degree in Astronomy; M.Phil. degree in Physics - specializing in solar physics.
Awards and Honors Postgraduate research award- Barbados government; Studentship Award in Solar Physics - American Astronomical Society
Dr Stahl, thank you for your patients in considering my controversial thinking: http://en.allexperts.com/q/Astronomy-1360/2009/1/Earth-Flares-2.htm
However, i do have one more question that i would like your expert help with. In 2002, Nasa published an item saying that solar flares reproduce. http://www.gsfc.nasa.gov/news-release/releases/2002/02-022.htm
Therefore, i would have to suggest that earth flares would have to reproduce also. If such a thing as earth flares existed, and they reproduced, would the item below fit as a description of this?
On the lightshow in the night sky at the beginning of July
Due to the brilliant lightshow, which was observed in many regions of Middle Europe on the first nights of July of this year, and which made itself most noticeable on the nights of June 30th-July 1st and July 1st-2nd, the following communication was sent to the editors of Astronomische Nachrichten [Astronomical News]:
-- From Herr Professor Doctor L. Weber, Kiel, Physical Institute of [Kiel] University, 11 July 1908:
In the course of the last 14 days, the photographically recorded curves of magnetic declination showed no disturbance of the sort that usually accompanies the Northern Lights. But it should be noted that several times, and indeed all the time over several hours, there were observed small, regular, uninterrupted vibrations [of the magnetic-declination curves] of about a 2' amplitude and a 3m [=minute?] period, which could not be traced back to known causes (e.g., streetcar vibration). These as-yet unexplained disturbances took place:
June 27-28 6:00 pm to 1:30 am
June 28-29 the same
June 29-30 8:30 pm to 1:30 am
ANSWER: Hello,
Homologous flares, including those that are engendered via CMEs or coronal mass ejections, have been known for some time. The existence of this phenomena on the Sun, however, still does not validate any formal theory for "Earth flares". Nor do we have independent confirmation that Earth flares comprise a separate species of flare. Or indeed, are connected to or treatable as any kind of flare. (Is there a magnetic component, e.g. magnetic mirror system at work, and have you shown it- see my answer to this question from Jani in the astrophysics forum)
As I noted, you have still not proposed even a hypothesis to test this. What will the hypothesis be? How will you test it? What indicators for the test will show the phenomenon is an Earth flare? What observations will you require to support that? What observations will falsify it?
What are the necessary and sufficient conditions for an "Earth flare" to occur or exist?
Without all of these answers, all you really have to work with is a random (apparently) set of possibly unrelated phenomena.
Your job now has to be to compile ALL the ancillary data and observations you believe are relevant and then:
1) perform statistical analyses (e.g. multiple regression or other) to show some kind of correlation between them,
and then
2) construct a model (mathematical) that is capable of predicting when the next occurrence will manifest.
Right now, all you really have is a constellation of peculiar observations or anomalies to which you have attached some significance or physical meaning via intuition (for lack of a better word) but devoid of any formal measurements you yourself have performed.
When you perform those measurements, or at least publish the photographs of the assorted phenomena (YOU have taken), I will be more inclined to take "Earth flares" as something substantive and not merely another UFO manifestation.
Again, UFO is not intended as a putdown, but a simple statement of fact of what you actually have here, minus any compelling data of your own or photos, measurements.
---------- FOLLOW-UP ----------
QUESTION: Dr Stahl,
I can't give you any models etc. I'm not that knowledgeable. I have never claimed to be well educated. I claimed i used reasoned speculation. Sometimes reason fly's in the face of education, while other times it's all we have. You mentioned ufo, and i mentioned Clyde Tombaugh. He claimed he saw a "structured" ufo (it had rectangular windows). He claimed it "petrified" him. Make no mistake, this mans education was found wanting, if not completely redundant by what he saw. If we required education and models to question this phenomena, the phenomena would be lost and forgotten. And sadly, this is how it goes! So! Though, I don't think im capable of doing those things you ask. I think it is at least a good thing that i continue to ask questions rather than not. But! If its wrong to label these things, that is a different matter.
I think i will try referring to my idea as somehow being related to earth flare activity, but mention that it's just an idea, a notion, or something.... as im simply trying to reach out with my experiences, with an idea, incase it makes scense to somebody more knowledgeable. You don't think it does make scense. I will take this on board, but i will keep asking some more. Just incase. No disrespect intended. Thank you for all your help with my questions.
All the best
David
Answer Hello,
Even if you can't provide a model, you should still be able to at least hypothesize based on observations-data that you yourself obtain. It is all very well to go back to historic sightings, magnetic records, but these still don't make the case that an entity such as an "Earth flare" really exists.
As I pointed out to Jani, in another answer, when one uses the term "flare" one means something specific in a context of rapid emission of energy. I noted to her that in every case for a genuine flare or what we understand by such, there is a MAGNETIC component to the actual energy release. At minimum, even if magnetic reconnection is not present, there is a magnetic mirror system in place. (For double layers to form and be prominent in the energy discharge)
Up to now, while you referred to historic observations of magnetic aberrations, you have not shown that the phenomenon you accept as an "Earth flare" has an actual magnetic aspect to its energy release.
I don't dispute there are many ways that our existing knowledge is limited, but that does not mean one eschews the basics of solid hypothesizing and observations and simply jumps to conclusions. (Which to an extent you have done, i.e. in associating your phenomenon with a plasma when you have not validated this by any measurement.)
It is good you are trying to "reach out" with your experiences, and have them validated. And I think I have done so, at least to the extent of granting they are "somewhat reasonable speculations". But to make them *reasonable* (fully) you need to at least give necessary and sufficient conditions for the existence of the "flares" you claim can occur on Earth. Or, more concretely, what are the n-s conditions for them to operate in the Earth's atmosphere?
Let's also be clear, that I neve said your experiences "don't make sense". I said that you haven't proven or demonstrated that they are consistent with what we know about actual flares. (again, see my response to Jani).
If you are going to have a more productive outcome, then I suggest you try to at least come up with your own observations, or - failing that- tie together all the observations and data you have collected- into at least a working hypothesis for an "Earth flare".
Until that time, they fall more or less into the category of more or less exotic UFOs.
You can also try to reach out "to somebody more knowledgeable" but I fear you will get the same answers as I gave - and I have researched and worked in the area of flares (solar flares) for more than 30 years.
But if you can find someone "more knowledgeable" who will validate that the odd manifestations, data you'e amassed point to "earth flares", then more power to you!
