Expert: D. Norkus - 5/21/2010

Question
I am looking for some comments about the announcement that Delta is getting ready to hire more pilots this year. What does this mean for the industry?

Answer
Valerie,

While Delta/DL hiring is a bright spot in the industry, most airlines in general are still not in that fortunate position...yet. According to a May 2010 Delta Flight Ops message, they anticipate needing an additional 240 pilots based on forecasted retirements along with a planned increase in pilot block hours, so that they are adequately staffed for the summer 2011 schedule. This is not a big enough number to really affect the industry much if it does at all. This is an opportunity for a select group of experienced regional pilots (or retiring military pilots) to move on to a major or for one of the thousands of pilots currently on furlough, to get back into the industry. Due to flow agreements with their regional feeders Compass & Mesaba, a certain percentage of those jobs Delta will be filled by pilots from those regionals. A factor that could negate any benefits of this DL 'hiring wave' is that the airline still has about 300 pilots who took a voluntary furlough that can opt to return, filling those vacancies so none would actually be new hires.

Judy Tarver, a former American Airlines pilot recruiter and aviation consultant, estimates that anticipated growth and airline pilot retirements will create the need for airlines to hire about 42,090 pilots over the next decade. The question is, just how long it will actually take for that growth to be realized where hiring is robust as it was in 2000 when over 5,000 pilots were hired at the major & national airlines. Compare that to 2010 when only 30 were hired (by JetBlue). Source-
http://www.fltops.com/hiringhistory.asp?Gateway=Interview

The major and national airlines must have some very good numbers across the board to really make an impact industry wide in pilot hiring, not just a handful of carriers looking for 100 or 200 pilots. What will really make an impact in hiring is the 5 year mark for the age 65 rule. The economy and growth are variables that can be inaccurately predicted, retirements are not. Multiple major and national carriers having to replace 300-400 pilots a year due to age 65 retirement will drive a hiring wave that will have an impact on the industry. Beginning in late 2013 is when those pilots who would have been forced to retire at age 60 will have to leave creating a considerable amount of vacancies and movement in the career. This ATP Flight School link has projected retirement numbers-
http://www.pilotjobs.com/2009/05/age-65-retirements-begin-soon-how-will-that-aff...

Regards,
Dottie

(PS- Sorry about you getting your answer "past your deadline", as you scored reply 'timeliness' low. The reply to your question was posted at 4:27pm, 4hr 13 minutes after you asked, on 5/21/10 and it was not read by you until three days later on 5/24/10 @ 07:53 AM.)