Expert: Steve L - 12/30/2004

Question
Steve--

Wow. Thank you for that insightful analysis. Can I trouble you for a couple more questions?

If you--as a guy who is obviously a passionate fan and a student of the game--if you saw a story
about a catcher who was destined for the Hall of Fame, a kind of Cal Ripken ironman type, who
was a strong hitter and played outstanding defense throughout a long career, what would you
think his lifetime batting average would be?

What percentage of baserunners steal safely in the modern era?

Are there any other career stats that would be important to a player (particularly a catcher)
looking back on his career?

Again, thank you very, very much.

George

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Followup To
Question -
Steve-

Thanks a million for getting back to me so quickly. So...if no record exists that you're aware of, I
might be able to make one up without being too afraid of getting caught as long as it was
plausible, yes?

Here's my situation. I'm writing a story about a catcher who set the record for gunning down the
most guys trying to steal second. A good part of the story centers around the ball that he used to
throw out the ___th baserunner. I've been using 1000 runners thrown out as kind of a
placeholder...is that even plausible? If a really good defensive catcher had a long, healthy career
on a good team, would it be  reasonable to say he might have nailed a thousand baserunners?

Your expert opinion on this is very much appreciated.

George



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Followup To
Question -
Steve--

Thank you for your assistance.

I am looking for a certain statistic that I have thus far been
unable to find.

Which major league catcher holds the career record for most
baserunners thrown out trying to steal second base? What is that
record? And how long of a career does that represent?

I am writing a screenplay about a fictitious catcher who holds
that record.

If you could help me, I would be very grateful. If you have no
objection, I might have a couple of other questions to ask down
the line.

Again, thank you for your kind assistance.

George Olson
rewritze@hotmail.com
Answer -
Hi George:
Boy, that's a tough question!

While I can't find the exact statistic, here's the best I can come up with:

RAY SCHALK caught for the Chicago White Sox from 1912 through 1927, and holds the career
record for Assists for catchers with 1,811.  

My guess is that he holds the record for most runners thrown out trying to steal second base.
Answer -
George:

For the first few years of Schalk's career, (1912-1917), the stolen base was at its peak as an
offensive weapon, averaging 1546 attempts a season for the entire league.

Caught stealing stats were kept for 1914-15; during those two years, runners were successful
only about 20-25% of the time.

So runners were being caught at the rate of about 1,200 per season.  If Schalk caught his "fair
share of runners" (one-eighth...there being 8 teams in the league at the time), he would have
averaged 150 runners caught per season, or about 900 for that 6-year period.

Then there was a gap in the caught stealing stats until 1920; at that time until Schalk's career
ended in 1927, stealing attempts declined by 50% to an average of about 700 per season;
runners were still being caught about 75-80% of the time.

So for those 10 seasons (1918-1927), Schalk could have averaged 60 caught runners, or a total
of 600.

These are VERY ROUGH calculations, but I think they are reasonable, and that you can assume
that Schalk did throw out at least 1,000 runners during his career.

Answer
If he were playing today, when batting averages are higher than in previous decades, the catcher you described would most likely have a career batting average of .270.

As a frame of reference, among catchers with long careers, Bench hit .267, Fisk .269 and Carter .262.  Berra, who played 19 seasons, hit .285.

Since 2000, runners have been successful 45% of the time in their attempted steals.

A catcher would be aware of Mike Piazza's 378 home runs -- the current career mark for catchers.