Expert: Steve L - 1/26/2006

Question
Dear Steve L.,

   My name is Sarah Bricault and I am currently developing a science fair project that relates to softball. (For this question the difference between softball and baseball is irrelevant). The goal of the project is to create a softball base (specifically first base) that can detect whether the runner is out or safe based on when the runner's foot touches the base, when the fielder's foot touches the base, and when the ball enters the fielder's glove.
  To analyze the results of this project, I would like your opinion on umpire callings. In your opinion, what percentage of the time do umpires make the right call? This statistic would allow me to do a comparative analysis as to whether my device, as it exists now, would benefit the game of softball. Thank you so much for your time, and I would greatly appreciate your approximation of this statistic.

~ Sarah Bricault   
sbricaul@wpi.edu


Answer
Hi Sarah:

Please understand that this is merely an approximation, but it seems to me that while there are often close plays at first, the umpires almost ALWAYS make the right call.

They position themselves in the best spot to determine whether the ball reaches the fielder's glove before the runner reaches first base, and whether the fielder's foot is on the bag.

I'd say they're correct at least 99% of the time.