Expert: Fabio Anderle - 7/15/2005

Question
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Followup To
Question -
Ainge talked a lot about cap flexibility and the rumors of Pierce leaving and Walker going elsewhere have been all around us.  Not to mention with the addition of Green in there and Reed playing as well as he has it almost seems that Tony Allen is pretty expendable.  

1. Walker (3 yrs 21 million), Blount, and Lafrentz for Mo Taylor and Penny Hardaway.
-Knicks want Walker and want that 3 point record by a team then let them have him, but we want them to take BOTH Lafrentz and Blount. (C's waive Penny)

2. Tony Allen and Marcus Banks for Chris Wilcox and a 2007 first round pick.
Wilcox played well when he started at Center for several games in LA filling in for Kaman. Wilcox is that high energy Center the C's could use with those youngins.

3. Paul Pierce for Ron Artest and Austin Chroshere and a 2007 first round pick.
Artest is 2 years younger than Paulie but the C's could defintley use his D and the fact that he could be a 20 point scorer.  His risk (behavior problems) warrent the first round pick in 07, but its a deal the C's should do.  The C's could also waive Chroshere and allow the Pacers to pick him right back up.

The C's could also sign Dan Dickau.
Considering that the C's would have Chroshere, Taylor, Penny as expiriing contracts in the next couple of seasons and would set them up for 5 first rounders in '07 its a deal worth doing (CLE, BOS, LAL, IND, LAC).  By 2007 the C's should be able to get a nice center and PG, not to mention the emergences of Green and Big Al, The Celts will be contenders by 2007- book it! (Free agents to sign in the next 2 season include Kirk Hinrich or Jason Terry and Jamaal Magloire or Amare Stoudemire)- The C's also put themselves in good position to make a deal or run at Greg Oden in the '07 draft.
Oh and they should sign Dikcau who fits the C's up tempo style nicely.

2005/06 Celts
PF A. Jefferson/ M. Taylor/ B. Scalabrine
SF R. Artest/ R. Gomes/ J. Reed
C C. Wilcox/ K. Perkins
SG G. Green/ R. Davis
PG D. Dickau/ D. West
-I like starting Green and allowing him to play 10-15 minutes in the first half like how K. Brown started with the C's and played around 10-15 min in the start of the game.

Possible 2006/07 Celts
PF A. Jefferson/ B. Scalabrine
SF R. Artest/ R. Gomes
C J. Magloire/ G. Oden/ K. Perkins
SG G. Green/ R. Davis
PG K. Hinrich/ D. West
-with some little signings or draftees along the way.
-The point is the C's can be serious serious contenders for a while by 2007 with this kind of dealing.
What do you think?
Answer -
Hi, Eitan,
your approach seems quite "trigger happy" on the trades, kind of Ainge-like.... But, seriously, if all the trades you pointed out were possible, the Celtics would surely improve. You see, it is all a matter of strategy: there are basically three possible courses of action in a rebuilding strategy. The first one is the most conservative one, that is keeping all the veterans and trying to improve the team via free agents signings and draft picks. The best playoffs teams usually do this, because they only need some adjustment, while the "framework" is already very competitive. The second approach, the classic "rebuilding from scratch" strategy, has managers freeing salary cap space and piling up draft picks to start anew: this is what Chicago did after Jordan's retirement, but it is a long process because young players need to learn how to play pro ball, and sometimes it is risky business too, since when they start to contribute their contracts are running out (as happened to the L.A. Clippers). The third course of action is basically a mix between the first two, which means trying to improve your team with trades and picks, if the opportunity arises, but at the same time keeping your best veteran players to make a run in the playoffs. This is the path Ainge has chosen, and it is usually the choice of the "middle of the pack" managers, dealing with teams which are not good enough to go deep into the playoffs but either not bad enough to be "lottery teams". It would be great to lure some good free agent to Boston, like Stoudemire or Hinrich, but I think that doing that is only possible when you have credibility, and after years of struggle the Celtics are back in the race. Ainge has an eye for talent, and all the 11 players he has drafted have contributed to some degree or look as if they are going to contribute. As you cleverly pointed out, we need a good point guard and a good center. Maybe West or Banks or Dickau will become the floor general we need. But talking about the man in the middle, you've got to be good and lucky, because the good centers in the game, you can count them on the fingers of one hand. And who has one of them in his roster, he won't give him away easily.

-Thanks Fabio,
I agree that the C's may not have much credibility in the free agent game, but if they're able to offer a guy like Hinrich max money, which may be something other teams are hard pressed to do, he could very well take it.  Players usually go to the teams that are offering them the most money.  Agreed that if 2 teams have equal proposals to those stars, then the player chooses the Heat/Lakers for example over the Celtics.  Amare is out of the question in terms of trying to sign, a complete pipe dream.  I don't think Kirk is though in 2 seasons (if enough cap is saved).  In terms of finding a center I also agree with you that it's hard to find one, and as the Knicks learnt, you just can't trade one that easily in the league or else you wind up having to draft Channing Frye with the 8th pick.  Wilcox to me though is a power forward in the west who does not have much credentials given to him by his team.  Chris, however, is a guy who can play the center spot pretty well in the east consdiering he averaged near 14 and 8 with the Clippers as a starter when Brand or Kaman went down.  Dunleavy seems to be holding some kind of grudge against the guy, but he can run the floor better than most 5's and is better than any other center the C's can acquire.  Tony Allen seems quite expendable as well considering the surplus of wing players the C's have.  Allen also has the highest trade value out of the 2s and 3s we have (Pierce, Davis, Green, Reed, Gomes).  It only seems logical to trade Tony when his trading value is at an all time high and at a point where we really don't need him.
My plan is simple... save some cap to acquire a point guard in the next couple of seasons that can run this club for a decade, i.e. Jason Terry or hopefully Kirk Hinrich, and acquire maybe another one or two first round picks for the 2007 season so we can me a run at Greg Oden, who could be the next dominating center to enter the league.

Answer
Even ithough I like Hinrich a lot, I doubt he deserves max money. Usually a max contract should be awarded to  star players or high profile scorers and rebounder, which is not Kirk's case. Of course Nash showed that a great guard can ignite a whole offense, but I still think we should try to find.... our own big man. Like Oden. Or Duncan would have been, if only those little balls in the lottery had been a little....greener. I agree, we have the shooting guard/small forward spots a little jammed, and I am sure Ainge will find a good way to receive fair value for the one who will probably leave the team in a trade. About Wilcox, well, he is a beast under the basket, no doubt about it, but to me he is not what we need down low. Jefferson is our future, so I think that if we have to spend big bucks on a center, we should go after a first string big man, both barrels. Ben Wallace, Yao Ming, Tim Duncan, you name them. But no Jerome James, no Chris Mihm will ever bring the sixteenth banner to Boston, that's the bottom line.