Bridge & other card games/Estimating duplicate score i simple method
I've read recently an article suggesting one might score your duplicate results on the simple basis of +2 -very good,+1 better than average,0 - average,-1 lower than average and -2 disaster. I can't remember any google references/keywords to refind it and nor can I remember how it was used to assess one's likely finishing position. Can you help with comments on the idea, how to google it to refind it and how to asses likely finish position
Sorry but I am unable to find the article or any references to it.
People frequently attempt to estimate their final result in duplicate bridge. One method is to estimate your result on each board based on what is the top score on a board in that tournament. For example, if you are playing in a tournament in which top on a board is 8 matchpoints, then, if you feel you got an average result on the hand you can estimate your result on the board as 4 matchpoints. You could give yourself 5 or 6 for an above average result, 7 for a very good result and 8 for a cold top. Simlarly 2 or 3 if you feel the result is below average and 0 or 1 for a disaster. If the top on a board happens to be 12 you can give yourself 6 for average and adjust the other estimates accordingly. At the end you just add up all of your estimates to generate your estimated final score. Of course, where you finish depends on how your competitors did and there is no way for you to be able to estimate that in advance.
The system you mentioned also works, just using a different scale. A ballpark final estimate might be achieved by adding all of these estimates, multiplying by 15, dividing by the total number of boards you played and adding the result to 50%. So for example, if your final total is +8 and you played 24 boards, the final estimate would be 8x15/24 = 5 plus 50% for a total of 55%.
It goes without saying that the success any of these methods largely depends on how accurately you estimate what is a bad board and what is a good board. If you misestimate large numbers of boards, for example by putting down negative estimates for what in actuality turn out to be good results, then no method will work.