Canadian Politics/Toronto mayor's race

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Question
What is your prediction on how the Toronto mayoral race will play out?

Though I am US born and raised, I am curious because 1) Rob Ford, 2) Bovada.com just posted gambling odds (below) and 3) my mom was born in Hong Kong like Olivia Chow and 4) Toronto is my favorite international city I've ever visited.

I am not familiar with Canadian politics but it seems to me that although Chow looks strong currently, if Ford keeps imploding, his support would go mostly to Tory and if Stintz and Soknacki don't get above single digit support, one or both might drop out to endorse Tory. Agree?

Olivia Chow
+130
  
John Tory   
+175
  
Rob Ford   
+300
  
Karen Stintz   
+1000
  
David Soknacki   
+1500

Answer
Dear Theo,

Thank you for your question.

I can't say I entirely agree with your analysis, though it is logical. Part of the issue is that there is a portion of Rob Ford's support that does not ever seem to turn away from him. It's rock-solid and probably wouldn't go to Tory or anyone else.

The other issue is that the race is currently set up as a left/right divide, and with Olivia Chow the sole representative of the left, her support will solidify while the right's support remains divided and will for the forseeable future.

The final thing to keep in mind is that people aren't really paying much attention to the race yet and really won't until September. That's when we'll get a sense of who's where and who will be staying in the game.

Hope this helps!

Adam

Canadian Politics

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Adam McDonald

Expertise

I can answer any questions about Canadian politics. More specifically, I have expertise in parliamentary procedure, the Constitution, and Ontario politics.

Experience

I have a B.A.(Hons) and an M.A. in Political Science, as well as practical work experience in academia, professional politics, government relations, and work at a provincial legislature.

Publications
Canadian Parliamentary Review Federal Governance Canadian Political Science Association Annual Meeting, 2005.

Education/Credentials
B.A. (Hons): History and Political Science. M.A.: Political Science

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