Expert: David A. NewMyer - 1/25/2010

Question
Hello:
   I recently read that regional airlines will be required to hire ATP with 1500 hours for FOs. How do you think this will effect flight schools?  Do you think that fewer people will be interested in flying due to the high hours required?  How do you think school will help students will build those hours required?  Thank you!

Answer
Hi, Brandon:

Thanks very much for your questions. I will try to assist.

At the present moment, there IS a proposal before Congress which has passed the House as H. R. 3371 and is awaiting action in the Senate as S 1744 that, if passed as a conference bill, could establish that First Officers flying for all FAR 121 airlines must have 1500 flight hours.  So far, this is just a proposal, but, it is getting serious attention and could pass as law.  If it does pass, the FAA will have three years to turn the law into a regulation.  The ATP requirements would then change at that point.  So, there will be a period of "phase in" after the law is passed and before the Federal Aviation Regulation is changed regarding ATP requirements.  

In the meantime, a lot can change.  For example, the FAA Administrator has "floated" the idea that, instead of changing the ATP requirements, that the regulations governing the FAA Commercial Certificate should be changed instead.  (to bring any new First Officer qualification requirements under the Commercial requirements rather than the ATP).  Also, he is suggesting that the change in the Commercial should be more about what types of topics the pilot should be exposed to in training (such as flying in a crew environment, adverse weather conditions, high altitute sign-off, etc) rather than total flight time.  Therefore, the argument from the Administrator and from university and college aviation programs is that it is about QUALITY of flight training education and training, NOT about the quantity of the hours one accumulates.  So, watch for the debate on this in the Senate.  It should be interesting.

As for the impact on people pursuing the dream of commercial flight due to the potential of higher numbers of hours required, yes, I think there will be a negative impact if the law goes into effect as currently written.  If for no other reason, because of the COST to students and future commerical aviators who are eventually required to have 1500 hours to start a career with an FAR 121 airline.  I am working with others in collegiate aviation toward a solution to this that still assures every measure of aviation and airline safety but also preserves key aspects of the QUALITY OF FLIGHT EDUCATION AND TRAINING arguments mentioned above.

If we lose the battle on this, I think there will be several outcomes and some of them unintended:

1.  A shortage of new commercial pilots in the USA due to the new barriers to gaining the ATP;

2.  A rise in the costs of training due to the increase minimums needed for the ATP and the relative shortage of locations/opportunities to build flight time;

3.  Impacts on regional airline costs, thus, rising ticket prices; and,

4.  Further losses in small community air service due to less airlines able to fly to small towns due to higher cost structures.

With regard to assisting students with building flight time:  Yes, of course, university aviation programs will do all that they can to provide options to build flight time.  Right now, working as a flight instructor within such programs is an excellent way to build flight experience.  The only limit to that will be the fact that there might potentially be less students training due to the higher barriers; this might result in less jobs for flight instructors.  

I hope that this helps you with your questions.

Best wishes,

David A. NewMyer