Expert: D. Norkus - 3/14/2007

Question
Thank you for your detailed answer!  I just have one quick follow-up question.  You mentioned that during slow hiring seasons, the hiring requirements are tougher.  I was reading somewhere that in the late 80s, pilots had to have around 5000 hours of flying time just to be considered for a airline job!  The current hiring requirements are about 600-1000 hours.  If there is a slow season in the future, do you ever expect the hiring minimums to reach close to 5000 hours?  Thank you.
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The text above is a follow-up to ...

-----Question-----
Hello:
    First of all, this is a great service!  I am 30 years old and am interested in a career as an airline pilot.  Could you please help me with the following questions/concerns:

1) I began shopping around for flight schools about one and a half years ago.  Back then the flight schools told me that there will be plenty of jobs due to "Vietnam era" pilots retiring. I recently found out that the FAA will raise the retirement age to 65.  Will this stop or considerably slow down hiring?  I also found out that it will take 1-2 years to bring about the retirement age change.  Do you think i should get all my ratings as soon as possible and get hired before the change takes effect?

2) I have been reading news articles all day concerning the job market for airline pilots.  According to Kit Darby, despite the FAA raising the retirement age, there is going to be a "severe" shortage of pilots in this country and worldwide in the coming years. According to Mr. Darby, airline expansion in other developing countries, growth of smaller regional airlines in this country including " ie: DayJet Corp.air taxis" (3-5 passenger jets) and furloughed pilots not returning to major carriers and instead flying for major overseas carriers and cargo carriers will fuel this airline pilot shortage.  Do you agree with this or do you think this is hype?  

3) How are the job opportunities for newly trained American pilots in countries like China and India and other countries with booming economies. Do they have a regional jet market?  My first choice would be to work for a US carrier, but in case there are no jobs here, i would have not choice but to work overseas.

I'm sorry for the long question.  I know you cannot predict the future, but if you had to guess with the information you know right now, do i need to worry about being able to find a job in about a year and a half?   Thank you.
Brandon

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1) Regardless of the retirement change one thing is certain: every day you do not have an airline seniority number you are losing ground as YOU progress towards retirement age. In this business your hire date determines everything. Literally what base, schedule and aircraft you can hold is all tenure driven. Your quality of life will revolve around your seniority as a pilot. The sooner you get hired, the better off you will be later- either to move up to a major or to have a better quality of life with your regional.

Do not let this retirement age change affect your flight training decision. Either you want to become a pilot or you do not. If you do, you will need to be prepared to take the good, the bad and all the risk that may come with it. The sacrifices you may have to make personally and financially are not slight. You cannot bet your career on second guessing hiring trends. (If I had known I would be laid off at age 32 after 9/11 I would not have changed my career path because it was what I wanted.) In slow hiring, the airlines become more selective in their hiring criteria as they have more candidates to pick from. Suppose it happens to slow again in a few years when you enter the job market. You must be just as prepared for that as you are a hiring boom (where their requirements are lower) if you really want to fly. The airlines were hiring in record numbers in the fall of 2001. Then 9/11 hit followed by a record plummet in the industry. Even if the hiring forecast looks great for 2009, one can never be 100 sure. Just ask any of the thousands of pilots who were riding high in 2001 only to find themselves unemployed in 2002. This must be a risk you are willing to take.

2) Yes, to a certain extend, Kit has a point. Those factors will and are creating job demand. Also, he is the "master" at tracking the hiring trends so he has some great insight. However, it is always in Kits best interest to proclaim a coming "pilot shortage" so there will be more clients for Air Inc.  While he may be correct to a certain extent, no one will know until it plays out.

3) For those with JAA certificates, there will undoubtedly be opportunities but personally I can't comment on the pilot job market abroad. Outside the USA, you will need pilot certificates from that country or union (like the JAA in Europe). Very few places will hire American pilots with only FAA certificates and it isn't as simple as a document exchange to get certificated abroad. In some countries it is a very complex process, beyond what the FAA requires for the same certificate. If you want to know about that and job opportunities overseas, try the message forums at http://www.pprune.org

..... if you had to guess with the information you know right now, do i need to worry about being able to find a job in about a year and a half?

I think you will be able to land a job providing you meet or exceed the airlines pilot hiring minimum requirements. Even if there isn't a "pilot shortage", there is always a shortage of "qualified" pilots. The better resume you have the better you will be able to market yourself. Quality flight time (night, multi-engine, instrument time, high-performance or even turbine experience) makes you stand out amongst other applicants.

If you have not, I suggest visiting this site as you will find lots of info you need to know. They also have message boards for questions and advice:

http://www.jetcareers.com

Hope this helps
Dottie

Answer
Brandon,

There is a difference between "competitive minimums" and "hiring minimums". There is also a difference between what the major airlines and regional airlines will accept of their pilot applicants

The hiring mins are the lowest standard of flight experience an airline will accept of their applicants. The competitive mins for a given airline are the average flight times of the applicants who were hired. The competitive mins may or may not be close the hiring mins depending on the airline.

At the regional airline level hiring minimums are typically a Commercial/Multi-engine pilot certificate with Instrument rating and 1,000 flight hours with 100 in multi-engine aircraft. Sometimes they will accept far less- like 500 hours- IF the pilot comes via an airline approved bridge program that guarantees it's graduates interviews with the affiliated airline.

At the major airline level the "mins" are typically 2,000-3,000 hours of previous turbine or jet experience (via a regional or the military) and an Airline Transport Pilot certificate. While the competitive mins at the regionals are often 1,500 or less they may easily be 5,000+ hours at the majors. Especially in periods where the job market is very competitive, meaning there are a lot of pilots applying for very few openings with XYZ Airlines. At the major level, the competitive mins are easily that high right now for many carriers.

To see what each airline is hiring right now, go to http://www.airlineinterviews.com and read the interviewee debriefs by the airline of your choice. Candidates that contributed interview "gouge" (the inside scoop on the process) often list whether they were hired or not and give their flight experience. This site will help you see who hires what kind of experience.

Dottie