Expert: D. Norkus - 12/4/2006

Question
Hello Ms. Norkus:
   First of all, thank you for such a quick and detailed response.  Your answer made me feel much better and i am not so concerned about finding an flying job once i'm done with my ratings.  I just have a follow up question.  You had mentioned that the majors are not hiring, but they regionals are. So, the hiring in the regionals must be bacause the regionals are expanding not because the regional captains are moving to the majors.  Am i pretty much on the mark? How long do you expect this trend of the regionals airlines expanding to last?

Also, i have already contacted ATP and i'll probably be flying with them since they have a training center in Houston.  Once again, thank you for you advice.  
Alex.
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The text above is a follow-up to ...

-----Question-----
Hello:
    I am 34 years old and have a private pilots licence with about a 100 hours flight time.  I would like to start flying full time and get my ratings as soon as possible and get hired by an airline.  I have one major concern. I recently read that the FAA and Congress might raise the airline pilot retirement age to 65 since the ICAO raised the international limit to 65 recently.  I am deeply concerned that the airlines will vitrually stop hiring once the age is raised since older captains will be not retiring for another 5 years thus not making room for new hires.  If the airlines do hire, it will probably be with several thousand hours flight experience.  This means, i might have to flight instruct for years.  I have called several flight schools to ask their opinions, and they have told me not to worry about it. Not surprising, since they need as many students as possible.  Please help me.  I would really value your advice or any information you have on this subject.  Thank you.
Alex
-----Answer-----
Alex,

While an age limit change would affect the airlines, it would have far less of an impact at the regional level- where you would need to start out. New airline pilots enter at the regional level, typically with 1,000 flight hours, many of which they logged as a flight instructor.  Even right now-  with the age still 60 in effect for retirement- the majors & legacies are not hiring or it is in small groups and they already require several thousand flight hours to even get called for an interview. No, at this point you should not worry about the age 60 rule as you are not even in a position to apply to the regionals- who are hiring- much less to a larger carrier. In the next few years a wave of Vietnam era pilots will be retiring, so that will make room for new hires from the regionals (or military). Plus, many have chosen to take early retirement as airlines have slashed salaries and cut or  eliminated pensions. They want to get out before they lose out on their retirement benefits.

As far as asking a flight school their outlook, it will always be the same. They tout the never ending 'pilot shortage'. Take it with a grain of salt as they have bills to pay regardless if the airlines are hiring or not. On that note.....

1) I suggest getting as much in depth and factual knowledge about the career as you can. As a midlife career changer, you need to go into this with eyes wide open and not "I have always dreamt of becoming an airline pilot." For many, what they dream is nothing like the reality. You need to be able to make some big personal and financial sacrifices.

2) If you decide to do it, it may be worth your while to investigate a fast track program like the ATP Career Track or Mesa Pilot Development program. While I do not have any personal experiene with either, I have friends who went to both and got airline jobs within a year after graduating. The ATP grads were hired as regional airline First Officers with less than 600 hours, 14 months after getting their PPL certificates & working for the academy as MEIs for a cost of $40K.

Check out my site and it's training & career links for further background info and let me now what else you want to know-

http://www.geocities.com/av8trxx99/FAQ.html

Dottie

Answer
Alex

You are fairly close but only one thing is certain in the airline industry: things are always in flux. What is true today may not be next week or next month. If anyone could predict the hiring trends in this business we could make a fortune as a consultant! (See Mr. Kit Darby and his "Air Inc" business for more on THAT at www.jet-jobs.com) Just when you think a boom period is happening, an economic down turn happens and then the trend is reversed. You never know and must be prepared to rise the ebb & flow.

This was the case post 9/11 as well as a few recessions when the airlines abruptly stopped expanding and began shrinking. After 9/11, many regionals (with low operational costs) did expand as the majors (with higher costs) were furlouging/"laying off" pilots and shrinking. While there has been some recovery for the legacy carriers, it isn't yet full. Thousands of major airline pilots are still laid furloughed. There are a few major carriers (namely Southwest, Fed Ex, Continental) who are hiring, so some movement up from the regionals is occurring as their captains move on up. Many legacy/major airline pilots are retiring (some early due to pay cuts), leaving the airlines to return to the more stable military full time or are simply getting out of aviation as a career, so that will open up vacancies for those who want to move up from the regionals in the next few years.

If ATP is the school you are interested in attending, be sure to go to the mentor forums on their site and ask questions of the pilots who were placed via their programs. Their opinions & advice will be very worthwhile to you.

Good Luck
Dottie