Expert: Jason Grabill - 10/20/2004

Question
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Followup To
Question -
I know that both Kerry and Bush have very clearly stated that under their jurisdiction there would be no draft, but how would one counter the fact that our military is being stretched to its limit, with 90% of our active duty troops deployed overseas? How do we plan to fix this without a draft?

Thanks for your time,
amanda
Answer -
Amanda:

 Well, the answer isn't simple, that's for sure.  However, we have less than 90 percent of our military deployed overseas.   It's actually more like 30-40 percent on any given day.  

 However, I will say that I personally am in favor of a draft, but most people in congress, and the military, are not.  The logistics of a draft alone, cost wise, would be staggering.  Realistically, neither party will support a draft no matter who gets elected, the main reason being it would be wildly unpopular at home, and in the military.  

 That being said, I'd support a draft only if there were no exemptions, men and women alike would get drafted.  Those with bonafide medical issues would be excluded.  Everyone else would either serve, or be required to do some type of community service (such as police officer, firefighter, etc).   No exemption for college.  No exemption for kids.  

  Nonetheless, those beating the drum for the draft are using it simply as political fodder in an election year.  It simply won't happen, no matter how stretched the military becomes.   Now, if the military begins to have serious problems in recruiting and retention (more than 20 percent of military people not reenlisting, or a substantial drop in recruitment), then you might see action on a draft.  That, however, has not happened.  Retention levels of active duty military, and even reserve and national guardsmen, are at either acceptable levels or are above the goals.  (In the case of the Marines, they've basically already met recruitment levels for the year, as well as retention).  Other services report the same things, generally.

 Don't know if that answered the question or not, but maybe helped some!

Take care,

Jason

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Jason,

Thank you so much for your thoughtful reply, it has been a great help. You mentioned in your response the huge costs involved with instituting a draft, could you tell me what those costs would be? (not necissarilly their amount, but where we would be directing funds) thanks for your consideration!
amanda

Answer
Amanda:

  Basically, the start up costs would be in multiple places.  First, you have the selective service boards.  These are located in every county in every state in the union.  These boards have to be manned and staffed.  (Usually 5-10 people per board).   Their offices have to be set up, etc etc.   And, this is basically a full time job.

 Next, various and sundry things from Congress have to be done, such as figuring out who to draft, exemptions, how long to make the person serve, etc, then publishing all of that, and informing the American people what the rules are.

 Next, transportation costs to and from the selective service medical screening facility for those selected.

 Next, increasing recruit training for all the branches to meet the massive influx of new recruits, (the current bases would have to be expanded, which means more housing, more drill instructors, more support staff, etc). Included in this is the uniform and equipping of new recruits.

 Realistically, even tho we have selective service in place (at 18, all males have to register), that is the only thing we have in place.  Nothing else is there.  

 A draft couldn't happen overnight.  At minimum, it would take, in my opinion, at least a year, probably 18 months, for the first draftee to get to the active, serving, forces.  And that is if everything went smoothly.

 My guesstimate of costs?  A billion dollars overall probably wouldn't be too far off.

 Best Regards,

   Jason