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MPRanger wrote at 2013-03-17 12:29:47


If you have a 60% chance to win it doesn't matter how many prior trials you have had. The chances on the next trade are 60% to win. Each trade is it's own stand alone event independent of whatever has occurred before it.



The odds are 3 to 2   (which is what you asked)



Break Even for a $100 investment with a 60% chance to win =

-100*60/(100-60) =  -150 -  $150



If you are preparing to bet a 3 card parlay or 3 evolutions of

your trade at a  60% chance - .6 x.6 = .36  x .6 = .22



22% = 4-1 odds



Since you have less than a 50% chance to win, break even =



100 * (100  - 22  ) /22   =  $354.54




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Bruce C. Kramer

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I can answer all questions related to commodity and futures trading, including technical analysis and indicators, trading systems, trading as a business, options, spreads, etc.

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4 yrs. as consultant to trust investment dept.
15 yrs. plus as full time professional trader
Managing Partner of BARKI,LLC, a private trading and consulting company (http://www.simultimeonline.com)

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Technical Analysis of Stocks and Commodities

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B.S. - Statistics
MBA - Finance

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