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# Commodities & Futures/Odds Calculation

MPRanger wrote at 2013-03-17 12:29:47

If you have a 60% chance to win it doesn't matter how many prior trials you have had. The chances on the next trade are 60% to win. Each trade is it's own stand alone event independent of whatever has occurred before it.

The odds are 3 to 2   (which is what you asked)

Break Even for a \$100 investment with a 60% chance to win =

-100*60/(100-60) =  -150 -  \$150

If you are preparing to bet a 3 card parlay or 3 evolutions of

your trade at a  60% chance - .6 x.6 = .36  x .6 = .22

22% = 4-1 odds

Since you have less than a 50% chance to win, break even =

100 * (100  - 22  ) /22   =  \$354.54

Commodities & Futures

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#### Bruce C. Kramer

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