AboutLou Jurs Expertise I can respond to questions regarding ecological relationships, wildlife and fisheries management, plant communities and animal plant relationships in habitats common to western North America, including Alaska.
Experience Many years of field experience with public land management agencies in western states (Alaska, Oregon, Washington, Idaho, Nevada, Arizona, Colorado, California). I have expertise in wildlife biology, zoology, ecology, fisheries, plant ecology,
forestry, watershed management, and other natural sciences. Target areas especially in great Basin, N. Rocky Mtns., coastal forests, intermountain region, southwest deserts (but not limited to these locations).
Education/Credentials BS Zoology University of Nevada; MS Arid Lands Ecology, Univ. of Nevada.
Question QUESTION: if the Arctic tundra warms up (about 10F) in the next 100 years. what might the likely pattern of succession look like?
ANSWER: That is a difficult question, as no one really knows the precise answer...except that you can make some educated guesses by looking at areas that would have a similar climate today. Look in Canada or Siberia at places that have an annual average temperature that is about 10 degrees warmer than the Arctic, and extrapolate the pattern of succession by looking at the plants and animals that are currently adapted to that environment. Generally (without reference to elevation differences) you can move south along a longitudinal line in a continental area (not influenced by oceans), and as you move south...the average temps will increase. There is actually a formula for those changes (look up Merriam's Life Zones). Happy Hunting.
Lou
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QUESTION: so what's expected to happen to those species found there? if those species go extict, what are the new species that are expected migrate there?
ANSWER: Hi, Nanda...
This is another "guess" on my part...but I would say that resident species who are not adaptable to changes that would result from a 10 degree increase in average temperature might eventually disappear. Experts are already saying that the polar bear might not be able to survive in such an environment. The Arctic has resident and migratory species which depend on the current habitat conditions. That much warming would certainly raise sea levels, decrease ice pack, melt permafrost and drown out much of the low elevation areas.
Animals like wolves, maybe caribou, birds, etc., will be able to move elsewhere (creating even more impacts on those areas). This will be a slow process, but something like it will be unavoidable (in my opinion) as warming temperatures spread. Species that might do well?
Perhaps aquatic animals and wetland species, as it is possible that the Arctic Plains could become a giant wetland. Even with a 10 degree average warming, winters would still be very cold, though.
Lou
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QUESTION: hello again! thank you, your answer r helpin alot doin my project but one
more question? about the relationship between species and the carbon
pools, how the carbon cycle would look like if we have low species diversity
Vs. high
Answer Hi again Nanda...
The carbon cycle relies on a supply of organic materials which, as they decay, produce and release carbon compounds. I have done no research in this area, but...I don't think the Arctic contributes much to the general carbon cycle on earth, compared to places with large numbers of plants and animals; where the turnover contributes more, and where decay and replacement are ongoing year-round. The Arctic summers are very short, and plant and animal life cycles depend on quick turn around. After October and until May, lots of biological activity slows way down. And, I don't think species diversity, in and by itself, matters as much as total biomass. If we had a big shift to birds over other species, that might have an impact. I believe, tho...that plants are the biggest contributors.
However, that said...I am intrigued by the question and will do a bit of looking on my own. If this doesn't help, let me know and I will share whatever I find.
