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About Warren D. Miller, CFA, ASA, CPA
Expertise
My in-depth knowledge of economics is confined to three sub-disciplines: Austrian economics, industrial organization, and evolutionary economics. Other questions dealing with macroeconomics, the traditional neoclassical paradigm, labor economics, environmental economics, agricultural economics, health economics, and so on should go to those who have the appropriate expertise. N.B.: I DO NOT ANSWER QUESTIONS MARKED 'PRIVATE' because I believe that knowledge should be shared, not hoarded. I also believe that such questions are likely to come those trying to cheat. Similarly, as one who was a full-time academic for half a decade, I can recognize test and homework questions several time zones away. Therefore, please do not demean yourself by submitting such questions to me. Those who do so are cheating, pure and simple, and I WILL call you out publicly if I believe you are doing so. I have a zero-tolerance policy where cheating and dishonesty are concerned. In addition, please don't be like the businessman who posted a request for help in August 2008. He expressly denied that he was seeking "investment advice" and said that his query was for, and I quote, "educational and informational purposes." In a follow-up query, however, he allowed as how his first questions related to the possible purchase of a $500,000 piece of equipment. Well, he was trying to get for free the kind of sophisticated advice that our clients pay for. I told him that I thought he had not been forthcoming in what he said initially (I was being polite). Bottom line is this: high-end business consulting is what I do for a living. I am the sole support for my family. Please respect that fact and don't try to steal what our clients pay for. That demeans you and insults me. Finally, please DO NOT ask for investment advice. I am not licensed to provide such advice. If you want such advice, check with your financial planner or other financial adviser.

Experience
I work with Austrian economics (which is different in major respects from the traditional neoclassical model), industrial organization (which is about industry structure, conduct, and performance), and evolutionary economics (almost, but not quite, the economic analog of its biological counterpart) everyday in my work. I appraise closely-held businesses, provide exit-planning services, and offer high-level strategic analysis, advice, and clients to CEOs and owners of mid-sized businesses. Understanding, applying, and writing about these disciplines is an essential part of how I have made my living since 1993.

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CFA Institute, Strategic Management Society, American Society of Appraisers, Institute of Management Accountants, Academy of Management, Culver Legion

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CFA Magazine, Strategic Finance, Valuation Strategies, Value Examiner, Journal of Advanced Property Economics, Harvard Business Review, American Fly Fisher, CFA Digest, CPA Expert, and Business Valuation Review, among others

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MBA - Oklahoma State (1991) BBA - U. of Oklahoma (1975) Chartered Financial Analyst designation (2006) Accredited Senior Appraiser (2006) Certified Management Accountant (1992) Certified Public Accountant (1992)

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You are here:  Experts > Arts/Humanities > Social Science > Economics > weakening dollar

Topic: Economics



Expert: Warren D. Miller, CFA, ASA, CPA
Date: 5/8/2008
Subject: weakening dollar

Question
QUESTION: why is it that with the weakening dollar prices of comodities in our countries(outside USA) continue rising when they should be falling.Especially that we do not import from the USA.

ANSWER: Dear Guy--

Thanks for asking for your question, and thank you, too, for using AllExperts.com.

You don't say to what country you are referring, so my answer can't be as precise as I'd like it to be. Still, you've asked an excellent and timely question, Guy. There is a three-part explanation.

#1: Oil prices on world markets use the U.S. dollar (USD) as their currency. There has been talk of late of changing that, but it hasn't happened yet. And those in the U.S. hope that it won't because it would be a severe blow to the U.S. economy.

#2: Many countries around the world 'peg' the value of their currency to the value of the USD. So, when oil prices go up (down) in USD, those prices go up (down) in those currencies, too.

#3: From what country the importing country buys is the last piece of the puzzle. If the country from which it buys has its currency pegged to the USD, then the price of the oil will be what it would be had the importing country bought from the U.S. itself.

Again, a great question, Guy.

Now, if you'd do me a favor: please complete the 'rate the expert' email you'll receive right behind this one. That helps me be more responsive to folks like you who ask such interesting questions.

Thanks again. Hope I've been helpful.

Warren

---------- FOLLOW-UP ----------

QUESTION: As much as the price of oil is a major factor in relation to a  bouquet of commodities, how is that some countries are not facing the steep rise in food as others are. the price of wheat and rice (sudan ) have been stable for more than ayear to date.

Answer
Thanks for the follow-up, Guy.

First, I don't know what your source of information for the price of wheat and rice in the Sudan being "stable for more than a year," but it's not true. Some links: http://www.fao.org/world/Regional/RNE/UNNews/news106_en.htm (the word "here" in the first line means 'Sudan'), http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/0,1518,547198-2,00.html, http://www.fao.org/docrep/010/ai465e/ai465e07.htm

The main reasons are that those currencies are strong relative to the U.S. dollar. That strength results from a variety of economic factors including fiscal policy, monetary policy, expectations of future inflation, and trade balances. Neither time nor space permit me to elaborate on this, but I know if you do some 'creative Googling,' you can find zillions of links to sources of information to the reasons for the behavior of the currencies of specific countries.

Here are some links to get you started:

http://www.csmonitor.com/2008/0227/p01s05-usec.html

http://www.voanews.com/specialenglish/2008-05-01-voa6.cfm

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=ahRifIz3hjh0&refer=home

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/03/29/business/worldbusiness/29rice.html?_r=1&oref=s...

Good luck. I hope this is helpful.

Best regards--

Warren

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