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Economics/Production forecasting and commodity price

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Question
Ref: request for Information related to production forecasting.

Dear Dr. Taillard,

May I ask what are the factors affecting the production of the following products
a) cement
b) steel
c) ethylene
d) pulp & paper products

I understand that in the case of cement, the main driver is GDP per capita. Using time series data, I could forecast national cement production using regression analysis. However, my R square value using this methodology for crude steel projection is very low unfortunately.

My second question is how can I obtain details related to steel/cement producer's price for any country?

Any assistance is much appreciated.

Thanks & regards,

Balan

Answer
Well, for global commodities pricing, you can go to each nation's commodities market.  In the US, for example, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (http://www.cmegroup.com/) has that information under the "Products and Trading" drop-down menu, then choose the asset class you're interested in.  I know it's tacky to refer to Wikipedia, but they have the most concise list of commodities exchanges from around the world (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_commodities_exchanges).

As for the exact variables that have statistical significance on the production volume of those particular commodities, I'm afraid that it's a very specific question that's a bit outside my specialization.  My research focus has been related to global investing and trade behaviors, not commodities production.

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Michael Taillard

Expertise

Accepts most economic questions

Experience

Consulting with major corporations, government agencies, political organizations, small businesses, non-profits, start-ups, and even individual people. Teaching at universities around the world, and developing original coursework. Performing original research and analysis. Writing books and scientific studies.

Organizations
American Economics Association

Publications
http://www.barnesandnoble.com/s/michael%20taillard You can also check Proquest for a small selection of my research.

Education/Credentials
PhD (Financial Economics; honors) -- MBA (International Business Finance; honors) -- Grad School Certificate (International Business Management; honors) -- BS (International Business Economics; honors) -- AA (Business Administration; honors) -- Certificate (Chinese Language and Culture) -- Trade School (Transportation Logistics; honors)

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