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Economics/Production forecasting and commodity price


Ref: request for Information related to production forecasting.

Dear Dr. Taillard,

May I ask what are the factors affecting the production of the following products
a) cement
b) steel
c) ethylene
d) pulp & paper products

I understand that in the case of cement, the main driver is GDP per capita. Using time series data, I could forecast national cement production using regression analysis. However, my R square value using this methodology for crude steel projection is very low unfortunately.

My second question is how can I obtain details related to steel/cement producer's price for any country?

Any assistance is much appreciated.

Thanks & regards,


Well, for global commodities pricing, you can go to each nation's commodities market.  In the US, for example, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange ( has that information under the "Products and Trading" drop-down menu, then choose the asset class you're interested in.  I know it's tacky to refer to Wikipedia, but they have the most concise list of commodities exchanges from around the world (

As for the exact variables that have statistical significance on the production volume of those particular commodities, I'm afraid that it's a very specific question that's a bit outside my specialization.  My research focus has been related to global investing and trade behaviors, not commodities production.


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Michael Taillard


Accepts most economic questions


Economic Consulting: American Red Cross; US Strategic Command -- Economics Lecturing: Bellevue University (Bellevue, NE) Huijia College (Beijing), OPII Schools (Omaha), Madonna University (Livonia), Schoolcraft College (Livonia), ZomBCon (Seattle), Zombiefest (Lincoln) -- Media Appearances: Dead Man Working (2012 Movie documentary), The Heartland News (Omaha local news outlet)

American Economics Association, Business Networks International, Midwest Writer's Guild, Zombie Research Society

Economics and Modern Warfare: The Invisible Fist of the Market (Palgrave Macmillan) -- 101 Things Everyone Should Know about Global Economics (Adams Media) -- Corporate Finance for Dummies (Wiley) -- Psychology and Modern Warfare (Palgrave Macmillan) -- Analytics and Modern Warfare (Palgrave Macmillan)

PhD (Financial Economics; honors) -- MBA (International Business Finance; honors) -- Grad School Certificate (International Business Management; honors) -- BS (International Business Economics; honors) -- AA (Business Administration; honors) -- Certificate (Chinese Language and Culture) -- Trade School (Transportation Logistics; honors)

Awards and Honors
Philanthropy awards and nominations for the OPII Schools economic experiment

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