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Question
Ref: request for Information related to production forecasting.

Dear Dr. Taillard,

May I ask what are the factors affecting the production of the following products
a) cement
b) steel
c) ethylene
d) pulp & paper products

I understand that in the case of cement, the main driver is GDP per capita. Using time series data, I could forecast national cement production using regression analysis. However, my R square value using this methodology for crude steel projection is very low unfortunately.

My second question is how can I obtain details related to steel/cement producer's price for any country?

Any assistance is much appreciated.

Thanks & regards,

Balan

Answer
Well, for global commodities pricing, you can go to each nation's commodities market.  In the US, for example, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (http://www.cmegroup.com/) has that information under the "Products and Trading" drop-down menu, then choose the asset class you're interested in.  I know it's tacky to refer to Wikipedia, but they have the most concise list of commodities exchanges from around the world (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_commodities_exchanges).

As for the exact variables that have statistical significance on the production volume of those particular commodities, I'm afraid that it's a very specific question that's a bit outside my specialization.  My research focus has been related to global investing and trade behaviors, not commodities production.

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Michael Taillard

Expertise

Accepts most economic questions

Experience

Economic Consulting: American Red Cross; US Strategic Command -- Economics Lecturing: Bellevue University (Bellevue, NE) Huijia College (Beijing), OPII Schools (Omaha), Madonna University (Livonia), Schoolcraft College (Livonia), ZomBCon (Seattle), Zombiefest (Lincoln) -- Media Appearances: Dead Man Working (2012 Movie documentary), The Heartland News (Omaha local news outlet)

Organizations
American Economics Association, Business Networks International, Midwest Writer's Guild, Zombie Research Society

Publications
Economics and Modern Warfare: The Invisible Fist of the Market (Palgrave Macmillan) -- 101 Things Everyone Should Know about Global Economics (Adams Media) -- Corporate Finance for Dummies (Wiley) -- Psychology and Modern Warfare (Palgrave Macmillan) -- Analytics and Modern Warfare (Palgrave Macmillan)

Education/Credentials
PhD (Financial Economics; honors) -- MBA (International Business Finance; honors) -- Grad School Certificate (International Business Management; honors) -- BS (International Business Economics; honors) -- AA (Business Administration; honors) -- Certificate (Chinese Language and Culture) -- Trade School (Transportation Logistics; honors)

Awards and Honors
Philanthropy awards and nominations for the OPII Schools economic experiment

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