what is your idea about iran economics?
A. ADMINISTRATIVE HISTORY.
The economy of any nation is controlled and directed by the superiority of those who rule it. Historically the Iranians contributed significantly to the current understanding of nature, medicine, mathematics, and philosophy. To mention a few, Persians first discovered Algebra, invented the wind mill and found the medical uses of alcohol. Mughals of Iran (From Babar, Akbar, Humayun etc..), besides providing a rule with economic prosperity in their home land, captured and ruled India from 1526 to 1761 AD (Nearly 240 Years), with an epoch making peace, prosperity and economic development contribution. (Considered more prosperous than the British rule from 1725 to 1947 AD or about 222 years).
MY OPINION : The economy of Iran is well supported by a superior administrative pedigree and knowhow.
B. CURRENT METHODOLOGIES
In the current times, scientists in Iran are trying to revive the golden age of Persian science. Iran has increased its publication output nearly tenfold from 1996 through 2004, and has been ranked first in terms of output growth rate followed by China.
Iran's economy is a mixture of central planning, state ownership of oil and other large enterprises, village agriculture, and small-scale private trading and service ventures. Iran's economic infrastructure has been improving steadily over the past two decades.
The current administration continues to follow the market reform plans of the previous one, and indicated that it will diversify Iran's oil-reliant economy. Iran is attempting to do this by investing revenues in areas like automobile manufacturing, aerospace industries, consumer electronics, petrochemicals and nuclear technology.
MY OPINION : Domestic Investments from Domestic sources is a positive approach to strengthen the economic development (Please refer to my Geometric Model “Accelerate your Socio-economic development : An eccentric bi-circular model and solution” at http://www.drvsrs.com/sedfull.htm
C. IN-HOUSE DEVELOPMENT PLANS
The services sector has seen the greatest long-term growth in terms of its share of GDP, but the sector remains volatile. State investment has boosted agriculture with the liberalisation of production and the improvement of packaging and marketing, to develop new export markets.
Even though successive years of severe drought in 1998, 1999, 2000 and 2001 have held back output growth substantially, agriculture remains one of the largest employers, accounting for 22% of all jobs according to the 1991 census.
Many dams are constructed throughout the country in recent years. There are large-scale irrigation schemes, and the wider production of export-based agricultural items like dates, flowers, and pistachios, produced the fastest economic growth of any sector in Iran over much of the 1990s.
Iran has also developed a biotechnology, nanotechnology, and pharmaceuticals industry. For energy, it currently relies on conventional methods, but as of March 2006, uranium refinement, the last major hurdle to developing nuclear power, was revealed to have taken place.
MY OPINION : Domestic productivity is linked to the Domestic Socio-economic development activities related to the core sector – Agriculture. Also there is an introduction of modern technology moderated to suit the domestic conditions. These are positive approaches to strengthen the economic development (Please refer to my Algebraic Model. “Redefined Productivity and Socio-economic development oriented Management Decisions” at http://www.drvsrs.com/mgmtfull.htm
D. INTER NATIONAL LINKS
Iran's major commercial partners are China, Russia, Germany, France, Italy, Japan and South Korea. Since late 1990's, Iran has increased its economic cooperation with other developing countries, including Cuba, India, Syria, South Africa and Venezuela.
Iran is also expanding its trade ties with Pakistan, Turkey and shares with its partners the common goal of creating a single economic market in West and Central Asia, similar to the European Union.
Iran also expects to attract billions of dollars of foreign investment by creating a more favorable investment climate, such as reduced restrictions and duties on imports, and free-trade zones like in Chabahar and the island of Kish. Modern Iran has a solid middle class and a growing economy.
MY OPINION : Iran is linked to EURO dominated nations, and EURO is gaining power in the international monetary domains. It is a good support for economic development. However, facility for foreign investment through free-trade zones need a cautionary approach. An approach with Domestic investment from Domestic savings + Modern technology (moderated to suit the domestic conditions) manned by Domestic manpower alone can promise a continued and sustainable Socio-economic development. (Please refer to my Geometric Model “Accelerate your Socio-economic development : An eccentric bi-circular model and solution” at http://www.drvsrs.com/sedfull.htm
E. CURRENT PROBLEMS & INFRASTRUCTURE
Iran is currently affected by inflation and unemployment. Iranian budget deficits have been a chronic problem, in part due to large-scale state subsidies – totaling to about US$7.25 billion per year–including foodstuffs and especially gasoline. (Economic Infrastructure - Problem)
Iran is OPEC's second largest oil producer, as it exports 3.3 million (2003 estimate) barrels of oil per day. Iran holds 10% of the world's confirmed oil reserves. Iran also has the world's second largest natural gas reserves (after Russia). The strong oil market in 1996 helped to ease the financial pressures on Iran and allowed for Tehran's timely debt service payments. (Techno-commercial infrastructure – Problem & Solution).
Iran’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth is 6.1% (2005), people below poverty line is 16% (2002). But Iran's population growth rate dropped from an all-time high of 3.2 percent in 1986 to just 1.2 percent in 2001, one of the fastest drops ever recorded. In reducing its population growth to 1.2 percent, a rate only slightly higher than that of the United States, Iran has emerged as a model for other countries that want to accelerate the shift to smaller families. (Social infrastructure – Favourable)
MY OPINION : Economic infrastructure problems are solvable by A to D above. Techno-commercial infrastructure problems have a self-solving support. Any nation with a GDP growth rate greater than the Population growth rate has an in-built economic development boost (Supply rate of essential items are more than the demand or consumption rate)
My opinion about Iranian economy is optimistic. It will grow, grow and continue to grow, irrespective of the international pressures (from nations having a key role in UN), on Iran’s strategic policies for development. Iran has the capability to negotiate, moderate and pop-off these pressures.
G. SUPPORT DATA SOURCE
Many publications/authoritative internet searches, Historical books and Iran’s fact reference media.