You are here:

Electrical Engineering/New Electronic Devices Future Prediction.

Advertisement


Question
QUESTION: Dear Cleggsan

We are in the 21st century - Year 2013, February Month and in the Internet computing era.

Science, Technology are advancing rapidly day by day and every three months a new technology in the form of a programming language, database, development tool/s,operating system etc comes on the scene.

For example : The Current C++, C#, VB.Net, Java programming Languages may OR may not get Obsolete in Year 2043 i.e. 30 Years from now.

The current electronic devices consumed by most people nowadays are Cellphones, Smartphones and Tablets.

Question
---------

Is it impossible to predict future at this moment for New Electronic Devices which will be used by People in Year 2043 i.e.
30 Years down the line ?

i.e. People will be still using Cellphones, Smartphones, Tablet PC
or Some other New Electronic Devices in Year 2043 ?

Will the above method given below help us in predicting New Electronic Devices which will be consumed by People ?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Supercomputer

1. Designing and Constructing next generation of Supercomputer Machines.
2. Designing and Developing Software Application/s which will be fed in the Supercomputer machine with inputting all the electronic
devices invented till date viz Electric bulb, Computer, Land line Phone, Wireless Phone, Microwave Machine, Electric Iron, Smart Phone, Tablet, Refrigerator, Television Set, Radio Receiver, Electronic voting machine, Automobile, Washing Machine  etc

i.e. Inputting inventions of all electronic devices with the name of the inventor, Year, Operating Voltage, Current and Wattage, Functions and features of each of the current electronic devices,
Industry Domain Use i.e. Homes, Offices, Factories, Airports etc.

What will the Process for this software application designed and developed ?.

Process consists of the mathematical calculations, logical processing.

A Software application / program has input, process and output.

Then questioning the Next generation Supercomputer which would be the Electronic devices five years, ten years, twenty years, thirty years down the line ?

Output of the Program will be the names of the probable Electronic Devices which will be invented.

Will the above method help to some extend in predicting new electronic devices of the future ?

Note : Computer Aided Design (CAD) will assist in designing the
new machine.

Awaiting your reply,

Thanks & Regards,
Prashant S Akerkar

ANSWER: Your question is one that everyone in the technology field would like to know the answer for!

From past experience it is certain that we humans are very poor at guessing what the future will bring.  Having been in the product design field I can tell you that changes in the depth of technology comes faster each decade.  Smartphones are a good example; we had no concept of them 10 years ago but now they are all over the world.  What is next?  Apple is now rumored to having a wearable computer/smart device that hooks on the wrist like a watch.  We don't know what the final product will be.

One of the experts in this field that I recommend to you is Ray Kurzweil.  I recommend you look at his predictions - which are not always right - but are reasonable guesstimations.  See this:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Predictions_made_by_Ray_Kurzweil

I suggest you read his book:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Singularity_is_Near

The 'next generation' is an old term coming out of work done in Japan by a group of scientist in the late 1990s and early 2000s which did not go anywhere, technically speaking.  With bio engineering and new atomic level work being done the thrust of technology is more to small rather than 'large' implementations.  

Thanks for an intriguing question and I wish you well in your investigations.




---------- FOLLOW-UP ----------

QUESTION: Dear Cleggsan

Thank you.

Will the above method given below help us in predicting New Electronic Devices which will be consumed by People ?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Supercomputer

Applications of Supercomputer
=============================

The stages of supercomputer application may be summarized in the following table:

Decade   Uses and computer involved
1970s   Weather forecasting, aerodynamic research (Cray-1).[72]
1980s   Probabilistic analysis,[73] radiation shielding modeling[74] (CDC Cyber).
1990s   Brute force code breaking (EFF DES cracker),[75]
3D nuclear test simulations as a substitute for legal conduct Nuclear Proliferation Treaty (ASCI Q).[76]
2010s   Molecular Dynamics Simulation (Tianhe-1A)[77]

1. Designing and Constructing next generation of Supercomputer Machines.
2. Designing and Developing Software Application/s which will be fed in the Supercomputer machine with inputting all the electronic devices invented till date viz Electric bulb, Computer, Land line Phone, Wireless Phone, Microwave Machine, Electric Iron, Pager, Smart Phone, Tablet, Refrigerator, Television Set, Radio Receiver, Electronic voting machine, Automobile, Washing Machine, Escalator etc

i.e. Inputting inventions of all electronic devices with the name of the inventor, Year, Operating Voltage, Current and Wattage, Functions and features of each of the current electronic devices,
Industry Domain Use i.e. Homes, Offices, Factories, Airports, Medical Industry, Tools, Raw materials etc.

What will the Process for this software application designed and developed ?.

Process consists of the mathematical calculations, logical processing part.

The Logical processing part will compare all the electronic devices like for examples how a cellphone, smartphone, tablet are different in terms of features and functions, a television set and a radio receiver set
are different in terms of features and functions etc.

A Software application / program has input, process and output.

Then questioning the Next generation Supercomputer which would be the Electronic devices/ five years, ten years, twenty years, thirty years down the line ?

Or

Enter the Year 2018, 2023, 2028, 2033, 2038, 2043 .....

Output of the Software Program will be the names of the probable Electronic Devices which will be invented as per the number of years entered i.e. 2018, 2023, 2028, 2033, 2038, 2043.

Inputting the Next generation of Supercomputer for Number of Years viz 5,10,15,20,25,30 where the Software Application will list the probable electronic devices which will be manufactured/constructed/invented as Output.

Will the above method help to some extend in predicting new electronic devices of the future ?

Awaiting your reply,

Thanks & Regards,
Prashant S Akerkar

Answer
According to Moore's law

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moore's_law

which seems to keep on applying to the real world after so many have claimed it has reached its end game, the process will imply that speed, computing power, storage and cost will double/half every 18 months.  Using that criteria it may be useful to make future predictions.

As to architecture and program/software developments it would seem they must take on revolutionary methods to be able to encompass these very fast computing methods that are yet to come.  

So, in your two future prediction schema above it seems to me a combination of the two methods might be a work of interest.

However, I remain suspicious of being able to predict with any degree of accuracy that far out.  In my business experience which included patent evaluation and corporate future planning I termed a phrase for my colleagues that "anything further out into the future beyond 2 years is only interesting fiction".  It became an operating principle in a company which had over 100 manufacturing locations and more than 20,000 engineers.  Of course this principle was not well accepted in the research departments!

Wishing you well.  

Electrical Engineering

All Answers


Answers by Expert:


Ask Experts

Volunteer


cleggsan

Expertise

All technical areas of Electronics Engineering.

Experience

BSEE, MBA, Design, R&D, University Research.
Senior Life Member of IEEE. Life Fellow of AES.

Organizations
IEEE, Consumer Electronics Society, Audio Engineering Society.
Broad teaching experience; work experience mostly in consumer electronics and conversion from analog to digital technologies. Pioneer in digital audio at all levels.

Education/Credentials
BSEE (Equiv) BYU BSEE University of North Dakota MSBA (MBA) Illinois State University Graduate Studies in Computer Science - Bradley University Graduate Studies - Ohio University Graduate Studies - University of Missouri Kansas City DeVry Tech - Electronics

©2016 About.com. All rights reserved.