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Electronic Components/New Electronic Devices Future Prediction.

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Question
QUESTION: Dear Deirdre

We are in the 21st century - Year 2013, February Month and in the Internet computing era.

Science, Technology are advancing rapidly day by day and every three months a new technology in the form of a programming language, database, development tool/s, etc comes on the scene.

For example : The Current C++, C#, VB.Net, Java programming Languages may OR may not get Obsolete in Year 2043 i.e. 30 Years from now.

The current electronic devices consumed by most people nowadays are Cellphones, Smartphones and Tablets.

Question
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Is it impossible to predict future at this moment for New Electronic Devices which will be used by People in Year 2043 i.e.
30 Years down the line ?

i.e. People will be still using Cellphones, Smartphones, Tablet PC
or Some other New Electronic Devices in Year 2043 ?

Will the above method given below help us in predicting New Electronic Devices which will be consumed by People ?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Supercomputer

1. Designing and Constructing next generation of Supercomputer Machines.
2. Designing and Developing Software Application/s which will be fed in the Supercomputer machine with inputting all the electronic
devices invented till date viz Electric bulb, Computer, Land line Phone, Wireless Phone, Microwave Machine, Electric Iron, Smart Phone, Tablet, Refrigerator, Television Set, Radio Receiver, Electronic voting machine, Automobile, Washing Machine  etc

i.e. Inputting inventions of all electronic devices with the name of the inventor, Year, Operating Voltage, Current and Wattage, Functions and features of each of the current electronic devices,
Industry Domain Use i.e. Homes, Offices, Factories, Airports etc.

What will the Process for this software application designed and developed ?.

Process consists of the mathematical calculations.

A Software application / program has input, process and output.

Then questioning the Next generation Supercomputer which would be the Electronic devices five years, ten years, twenty years, thirty years down the line ?

Output of the Program will be the names of the probable Electronic Devices which will be invented.

Will the above method help to some extend in predicting new electronic devices of the future ?

Note : Computer Aided Design (CAD) will assist in designing the
new machine.

Awaiting your reply,

Thanks & Regards,
Prashant S Akerkar

ANSWER: I don't expect that we can know what technology will look like in 30 years precisely. I see technology changing quite rapidly; we are trending to lower power and faster technology. 30 years ago, the fastest computers operated at between 6 and 25 MHz. (Intel 80186). Today, we have computers operating with clock speeds at hundreds of times those speeds.

We are moving to an age of quantum and optical computing. I expect that while electronics may still be recognizable as technology in 30 years, it will look quite different.

A Technician trained 30 years ago, and presented with today's technology would not be able to effect a repair without further training. Surface mount technology, for example, while coming into its own in the 1980s was not nearly as ubiquitous nor dense as it is today. BGA packages were introduced in the 1990's, and now we have QFN packages - soldering techniques of the 1980s were not sufficient to operate with such components.

Electronics is getting smaller, information density is getting higher. Intel recently shipped its first 60-core phi processors. These are used in a computer called Stampede, which is now operating at a speed of nearly 10 petaflops. (10,000,000,000,000 floating decimal point operations per second). Supercomputers built 5 years ago are being retired as obsolete.

In the supercomputing world, new technology is adopted very quickly, and that technology flows down to the consumer world. In 30 years, we will likely have petaflop computing capability in hand-held devices. Remember that what we have in our tablets and laptops today was the stuff of super computers 30 years ago.

---------- FOLLOW-UP ----------

QUESTION: Dear Deirdre

Thank you.

Will the above method given below help us in predicting New Electronic Devices which will be consumed by People ?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Supercomputer

Applications of Supercomputer
=============================

The stages of supercomputer application may be summarized in the following table:

Decade   Uses and computer involved
1970s   Weather forecasting, aerodynamic research (Cray-1).[72]
1980s   Probabilistic analysis,[73] radiation shielding modeling[74] (CDC Cyber).
1990s   Brute force code breaking (EFF DES cracker),[75]
3D nuclear test simulations as a substitute for legal conduct Nuclear Proliferation Treaty (ASCI Q).[76]
2010s   Molecular Dynamics Simulation (Tianhe-1A)[77]

1. Designing and Constructing next generation of Supercomputer Machines.
2. Designing and Developing Software Application/s which will be fed in the Supercomputer machine with inputting all the electronic devices invented till date viz Electric bulb, Computer, Land line Phone, Wireless Phone, Microwave Machine, Electric Iron, Pager, Smart Phone, Tablet, Refrigerator, Television Set, Radio Receiver, Electronic voting machine, Automobile, Washing Machine, Escalator etc

i.e. Inputting inventions of all electronic devices with the name of the inventor, Year, Operating Voltage, Current and Wattage, Functions and features of each of the current electronic devices,
Industry Domain Use i.e. Homes, Offices, Factories, Airports, Medical Industry, Tools, Raw materials etc.

What will the Process for this software application designed and developed ?.

Process consists of the mathematical calculations, logical processing part.

The Logical processing part will compare all the electronic devices like for examples how a cellphone, smartphone, tablet are different in terms of features and functions, a television set and a radio receiver set
are different in terms of features and functions etc.

A Software application / program has input, process and output.

Then questioning the Next generation Supercomputer which would be the Electronic devices/ five years, ten years, twenty years, thirty years down the line ?

Or

Enter the Year 2018, 2023, 2028, 2033, 2038, 2043 .....

Output of the Software Program will be the names of the probable Electronic Devices which will be invented as per the number of years entered i.e. 2018, 2023, 2028, 2033, 2038, 2043.

Inputting the Next generation of Supercomputer for Number of Years viz 5,10,15,20,25,30 where the Software Application will list the probable electronic devices which will be manufactured/constructed/invented as Output.

Will the above method help to some extend in predicting new electronic devices of the future ?

Awaiting your reply,

Thanks & Regards,
Prashant S Akerkar

Answer
It's impossible to predict with a computer what the next mass-consumed new product will be. The problem is that you are asking it to predict what future technology, which does not yet exist, will be adopted - you are asking it to be a prophet, which is something a computer cannot do.

A computer CAN help to determine what factors, for example, contribute to a hit song. It might be able to determine if a particular song possesses the qualities that might make it a hit, but it cannot yet write that song. It can predict traffic patterns, sales patterns, crime patterns, but it cannot predict with 100% certainty who will do what on any given day. Even super computers are limited - they are very able to discern patterns, but they do not possess the gift of prophecy.

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Deirdre Hebert

Expertise

I can answer most questions regarding electronic components, what they are and how to use them.

Experience

I worked for a number of years in the electronic component testing industry, designing and building automated test equipment for the electronic manufacturing industry.

Publications
Numerous technical manuals for the equipment we built.

Education/Credentials
UNH, CCAF and others

Past/Present Clients
General Electric, Motorola, Ford, Sensonor and others.

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