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Question
QUESTION: Dear ZZ

We are in the 21st century - Year 2013, February Month and in the Internet computing era.

Science, Technology are advancing rapidly day by day and every three months a new technology in the form of a programming language, database, development tool/s, etc comes on the scene.

For example : The Current C++, C#, VB.Net, Java programming Languages may OR may not get Obsolete in Year 2043 i.e. 30 Years from now.

The current electronic devices consumed by most people nowadays are Cellphones, Smartphones and Tablets.

Question
---------

Is it impossible to predict future at this moment for New Electronic Devices which will be used by People in Year 2043 i.e.
30 Years down the line ?

i.e. People will be still using Cellphones, Smartphones, Tablet PC
or Some other New Electronic Devices in Year 2043 ?

Will the above method given below help us in predicting New Electronic Devices which will be consumed by People ?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Supercomputer

1. Designing and Constructing next generation of Supercomputer Machines.
2. Designing and Developing Software Application/s which will be fed in the Supercomputer machine with inputting all the electronic
devices invented till date viz Electric bulb, Computer, Land line Phone, Wireless Phone, Microwave Machine, Electric Iron, Smart Phone, Tablet, Refrigerator, Television Set, Radio Receiver, Electronic voting machine, Automobile, Washing Machine  etc

i.e. Inputting inventions of all electronic devices with the name of the inventor, Year, Operating Voltage, Current and Wattage, Functions and features of each of the current electronic devices,
Industry Domain Use i.e. Homes, Offices, Factories, Airports etc.

What will the Process for this software application designed and developed ?.

Process consists of the mathematical calculations.

A Software application / program has input, process and output.

Then questioning the Next generation Supercomputer which would be the Electronic devices five years, ten years, twenty years, thirty years down the line ?

Output of the Program will be the names of the probable Electronic Devices which will be invented.

Will the above method help to some extend in predicting new electronic devices of the future ?

Note : Computer Aided Design (CAD) will assist in designing the
new machine.

Awaiting your reply,

Thanks & Regards,
Prashant S Akerkar

ANSWER: You got an answer from Cleggsan.  It is a good one.  Ray Kurszweil is a good one to study for such advance forecasting.

There are many web sites on future technology that has ideas about where the next products are coming from and what they will be.  Example:

http://itechfuture.com/

but you can google around for future technologies and find many who think they know what is coming.  

In the industrial world the manufactures and product planning and R&D people are looking 5 years down the road.  Pure research people are looking mostly at materials and methods without ideas or concept of product implementation.  Predicting the future is a very difficult thing to do!

PS: CAD is now old.  New design methods employ computer AI methods to 'think' through the creation of designs.  New model making machines use printing methods that create three dimensional objects right before your eyes.



---------- FOLLOW-UP ----------

QUESTION: Dear ZZ

Thank you.

Will the above method given below help us in predicting New Electronic Devices which will be consumed by People ?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Supercomputer

Applications of Supercomputer
=============================

The stages of supercomputer application may be summarized in the following table:

Decade   Uses and computer involved
1970s   Weather forecasting, aerodynamic research (Cray-1).[72]
1980s   Probabilistic analysis,[73] radiation shielding modeling[74] (CDC Cyber).
1990s   Brute force code breaking (EFF DES cracker),[75]
3D nuclear test simulations as a substitute for legal conduct Nuclear Proliferation Treaty (ASCI Q).[76]
2010s   Molecular Dynamics Simulation (Tianhe-1A)[77]

1. Designing and Constructing next generation of Supercomputer Machines.
2. Designing and Developing Software Application/s which will be fed in the Supercomputer machine with inputting all the electronic devices invented till date viz Electric bulb, Computer, Land line Phone, Wireless Phone, Microwave Machine, Electric Iron, Pager, Smart Phone, Tablet, Refrigerator, Television Set, Radio Receiver, Electronic voting machine, Automobile, Washing Machine, Escalator etc

i.e. Inputting inventions of all electronic devices with the name of the inventor, Year, Operating Voltage, Current and Wattage, Functions and features of each of the current electronic devices,
Industry Domain Use i.e. Homes, Offices, Factories, Airports, Medical Industry, Tools, Raw materials etc.

What will the Process for this software application designed and developed ?.

Process consists of the mathematical calculations, logical processing part.

The Logical processing part will compare all the electronic devices like for examples how a cellphone, smartphone, tablet are different in terms of features and functions, a television set and a radio receiver set
are different in terms of features and functions etc.

A Software application / program has input, process and output.

Then questioning the Next generation Supercomputer which would be the Electronic devices/ five years, ten years, twenty years, thirty years down the line ?

Or

Enter the Year 2018, 2023, 2028, 2033, 2038, 2043 .....

Output of the Software Program will be the names of the probable Electronic Devices which will be invented as per the number of years entered i.e. 2018, 2023, 2028, 2033, 2038, 2043.

Inputting the Next generation of Supercomputer for Number of Years viz 5,10,15,20,25,30 where the Software Application will list the probable electronic devices which will be manufactured/constructed/invented as Output.

Will the above method help to some extend in predicting new electronic devices of the future ?

Awaiting your reply,

Thanks & Regards,
Prashant S Akerkar

Answer
This is outside my expertise; that is, looking that far into the future.

I have experience in 5 to 10 years out but not beyond that time frame.

Looking at past products and the history of their development, market penetration and business success is a good method of forecasting for the near term (say 5 to 10 years).  But for long term planning (over 10 years) it is risky to use those analogies because human nature and markets change.  The example is one which you mentioned: the cell phone.  It was not even thought of 15 or 20 years ago so long range futurists would have had no basis on predicting it other than imagination, hope and luck.  Trying to predict what may happen in the exponential development of electronic and computer technology is very risky so far out into the future.

Ray Kurzweil thinks that interaction with the human brain will become possible and we can augment the human mind with external input from biomachines that will enhance human living and so forth.  Others think it is a foolish idea.

How we as humans communicate and interact with each other will change and will make the market for technology change with it.  In the far future the way we communicate now through smartphones and tablets may look slow and foolish to the year 2050 but we have no way of knowing for sure what will replace these current soon to be obsolete devices.

Sorry, but I am not optimistic about being very successful in accurate futuristic forecasting.

HOWEVER: For academic and experimental forecasting and futuristic planning it makes for exciting processes and techniques for looking far ahead.  And, don't forget that inspiration and imagination are an important part of strategy.

Best wishes.  

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ZZ

Expertise

Electronics questions about AC, DC and digital theory.

Experience

Graduate electrical engineer with over 40 years in electronic design, manufacturing, project organization and patent review. Experience in fields of industrial and consumer electronics (audio, video, acoustics, etc.)

Organizations
IEEE (Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers); Senior Life member AES (Audio Engineering Society), Fellow Life member

Education/Credentials
BSEE University of North Dakota

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