Expert: Al Pepper Date: 3/7/2008 Subject: hand strategy
Question Neil Myers analyzes the following situation:
Pre flop, I have
Ah, 6h
I am on the button
3 limpers before me, both blinds after me limp also.
Total pot = $30
The flop comes
Ks, 6c, 4h
Everyone checks to me, and I try to steal the pot
with a $20 bet, but two players call, and the pot now
is $90.
The turn comes
2h
Myers says that I should call. I have 9 outs to a flush
I have two outs to a set of sixes, and 3 outs to a
pair of aces. So far so good.
Here is where I don't follow Myers. He says:
"If your opponents have a weak king, the
ace on the river will probably not elicit
a call, but a seven will."
There doesn't seem to be any straights in the offing,
and I see no reason for a seven to carry more weight
than any card other than a heart, an ace, or a six.
My question:
Why will a seven on the river elicit a call?
Answer Hi Jsquarek: I'm having a bit of trouble trying to follow your question (or Myers' reasoning). I assume when you say elicit a call, you're taliking about the other players (particularly the one with King-Rag) calling a bet on the river when the seven comes? Is that correct?
One thing to consider is that we have a family pot with 6 limpers pre-flop. Unless someone is getting cute with a big pocket pair, any junk hand could be out there -- even a 5s-3s or an 8c-5c. I look at this as a great situation for a small suited connector. Get in the pot cheap with multiway action. Your $20 dollar bet might chase away the 85, but a 53 has an open-ended straight draw and he has the odds to call.
On the turn, I am making the assumption that the third player made a straight (or is drawing to a stright), bet out (how much, I don't know). Of course you are going to call with your nut-flush draw (unless there was an all-in bet, which I don't think is the case); the player with the King sees top pair and will most likely call.
The River card (assuming 7 non heart) looks relatively innocuous to an inexperienced player with Kings Up. It's a bad card for you as it can be an overpair and helps any player drawing to the low straight. If the third player bets out, you can make the crying call; however, a fold would be the best option. The player with kings is more compelled to call with his top pair.
I agree with Myers. If an ace landed, the King-Rag has to know he's beat. The only thing that can beat you is if the third players already made his straight on the turn.
I think the best strategy would have been for you to raise on the button, just to chase away speculative hands like 53s and to get the blinds to fold.
If I missed the point, plese resend with clarification.
