Expert: Tony Diamond - 3/17/2009

Question
Hi Tony,

I have been making teaser bets on the nfl for the past couple of years, with some success.

I was told that since the books are normally pretty sharp, a teaser (ive used 6,7,10,13 and 21pt) makes it that much easier.
What are your thoughts?

Also, do you know of any stats that lead towards better teaser odds (aside from Wong's theory).
Example: a game with a low total might be better for teasers since less points are expected to be scored and the game will be decided by a smaller margin.
It would seem to make sense, but i dont know of anybody who has done the research.

thanks!

Answer
Cory,
Playing the teaser is obviously much easier than going against the moneyline, but you also pay the consequences with a much lower payout than if with a parlay...I have had a lot of success with teasers but I really don't have a particular system, I look at each game individually.I make my own line and when I have the value, then I either play it straight or on the money line.

Yes there is some sound reasoning for looking at the lower totals when making teaser wagers...It is obvious that the lower the expected total the more prominent the point spread comes into play.

If I have any quirk in my teaser bets, is that I like to look for a small home underdog, say +1 or 2 in basketball or 2 or 3 in football and lean a little toward taking the home dog on a teaser.

I will rarely play anymore than a 4 point teaser in basketball and a 7 point teaser in football....The odds you get do not justify the play when using the higher points.

Hope this helps...you can find many articles on sport betting and handicapping in my articles archive on www.tonydiamond.com or on my blog at: www.bizbettingsports.blogspot.com

Good Luck
Tony