Question Hi
is there any working soccer betting system , my senses say no if there were people selling systems to us would have no need to sell but would beat every bookie in the world, however i continue to search for such a system but no one can prove they make profit because they show to us "big profits" when game ends not before it starts :)
so my question is can bookie edge be overcome and do you know of a system giving 1-2 % profit week after week.
thank you
Krasimir, Bulgaria
Answer Hi Krasimir: As an American, I never bet on soccer. But I do know a lot about betting in American football. One big factor in NFL football is the home field advantage.
In soccer, even more than football or any other sport, home field advantage is very important. Teams can go an entire season unbeaten at home, while carrying a mediocre record on the road. I looked at the standings of some major European leagues and its amazing:
» Real Madrid: 11-1-0 at home / 5-4-3 on the road
» Deportivo: 10-1-2 at home / 5-3-3 on the road
» Newcastle: 7-3-3 at home / 2-8-2 on the road
» Juventus: 9-1-1 at home / 5-3-2 on the road
To begin with, soccer fans are not just fans, they’re maniacs. And it’s the only game in town. No other sport in Europe even comes close in popularity. Soccer fans are the epitome of the word ‘die-hard’, more so even - dare I say it - than NFL fans. It’s a war mentality where regional rivalries and hatreds run deep. No American sport locks visiting fans in their own section of the stadium, sealed in a cage to protect them from flying bottles and other missiles hurled at them by the home fans. It’s unheard of for baseball fans to be chased and beaten for supporting the wrong team. Not so in soccer.
Since home fans are so crazy about their teams, home teams have a much bigger advantage. Crowds are deafeningly noisy, incredibly rowdy and they sing throughout the game. When the home team is losing they look to the crowd for motivation and support. When they’re winning, fan support can make a home team unstoppable.
Another factor is ‘away disadvantage.’ Home crowds are very intimidating to road teams. Players perceive it to be much more difficult to play on the road, and their nervousness often results in mistakes and bad decisions. Teams that haven’t won for years in a certain stadium will feel it’s impossible to win there. These types of records hang like an albatross around their necks. So it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy: through pessimism and fatalism the road team becomes convinced they will lose, and they aren’t surprised when they do.
That’s all fine and interesting, you might say, but how can you profit from this? For the most part, the oddsmakers factor home field advantage into their lines. But the average bettor certainly doesn’t, especially when a premier team is playing on the road. The result is skewed lines, often with value in the home underdog. Dismal away teams with a winless road record and a losing overall record, often have a respectable record at home.
Try betting games where you can spot good value in the "home field advantage."
