Expert: Stuart Resnick - 9/3/2009

Question
Hi
is there any working soccer betting system , my senses say no if there were people selling systems to us would have no need to sell but would beat every bookie in the world, however i continue to search for such a system but no one can prove they make profit because they show to us "big profits" when game ends not before it starts :)
so my question is can bookie edge be overcome and do you know of a system giving 1-2 % profit week after week.
thank you
Krasimir, Bulgaria

Answer
As you suspect, none of the systems for sale will give you a likely profit. There are indeed many systems that will likely give you a 1-2% profit week after week. In ALL such cases, there will be rare weeks in which the system fails, and on those weeks, you'll have huge losses, which will wipe out all your wins and then some.

The only way to make money is to have better knowledge and more information than the masses of people who are making bets. In other words, if your knowledge/information about the soccer teams is 10% better than the average bettor (as weighted by bet size), then you'll have a 10% edge, less the vig.

The betting odds are based on how much is being bet. Suppose you're knowledgeable enough to know that the betting on a particular game is heavily skewed by the fact that one team is a SENTIMENTAL favorite. Many people are betting on a team not based on cold rational information, but on who they WANT to win. In cases like this, you can gain an edge by betting the opposite way: based on cold, unsentimental reason. But in no case will you ever be insured a 1-2% profit week after week.