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Gambling/Sports betting strategy



I'm Marlon, a computer science student in England. Recently I've taken a liking to gambling, and have played BJ, Roulette, and baccarat online as well as in a casino.

I am very much interested in betting systems/strategies to increase my odds. I've tried the martingale system in a casino risking 375 in roulette, just to win 400 (doubling from 25; 25 profit), and realized how dangerous this is.

As a professional gambler, I'm sure you are aware of many strategies/systems to increase your odds. My question relates to a recent football (soccer) betting system I've thought of, explained below.

I start betting with X and place one bet per day with an aim to make 1% profit per day. So typically I would bet on odds of decimal 1.01 (fraction 1/100).

So in one day I would make 1% profit, and based on re-investing the entire sum each day, I would make 3678% profit per year. Thus 1 invested would return ~37.

The type of bets I make depend on the game, so for 'Big games' i.e. high profile teams who have a good record of scoring, I would bet on 'over 0.5', on odds of 1.01, which means I get a return as soon as the first goal is scored. For other teams, I typically wait until 40:00 mins of the game, and if the teams are scoreless, I bet 'under 6.5', assuming that teams who haven't scored a single goal in the first half would be incapable of scoring 7 goals in the second half.

Obviously a single loosing bet would prove fatal; however since I only bet on extremely short odds, I do not expect to lose.

I am in the initial stage of implementing this system, and as a proof of concept I am attempting to double my stake (100) in ~60 days.

Thanks for reading through. And I would appreciate your thoughts.

I would appreciate your thoughts on this.


ALL progressive betting systems meet the same result once a sufficient number of trials is reached.

Your short term results are insignificant and misleading in extremis.

Millions of people have lost all of their assets in the last few centuries.

Practically every introductory level book on PROBABILITY contains the "GAMBLER'S FALLACY"

The "Law of Large Numbers" is what you are defying.

In mathematics, unlike in OUR world, you cannot defy the law.

EVERY mathematician agrees with the above.

There are no exceptions.

Modeling your progression can easily be modeled and computer simulated.

100% of the simulations will result in a total loss of all funds.

If I am wrong, Casinos and Sports Books like BetFair, would quickly ALL be bankrupt.



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The Count


I have considerable expertise in all casino games as well as horse race wagering. My strongest area of knowledge is in Blackjack. VideoPoker questions are also welcome as are the areas of Craps and Baccarat. No sport-betting queries. I was a professional gambler for decades, now semi-retired.


I am a semi-retired professional gambler with a graduate education. An accomplished "card-counter", I am very much unwelcome in most American casinos and some abroad.

"Blackjack Forum" (under a pseudonym) and several backgammon newsletters (also psudonomously)

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