About bryan bartman Expertise I can answer sports handicapping questions relating to specific matchups in college basketball, college football, pro football, college football, and baseball. Any match up can be studied by the use several handicapping models that can be explained in detail.
Experience Over 20 years use databases to create sports handicapping models to assist in predicting the outcome of sporting events
Question I am interested in finding serious articles (research type) on football (NFL) and hockey gambling to lower my losses for the next season. Where can I find some ? Who's the reference on the subject ?
Answer Hi Patrik:
A book that I have read and re-read from time to time is call "the book on bookies" by James Jeffries and Charles Oliver.
This gives a straight forward look at how bookies profit.
I have used this book to give me a basic reminder of what the profit drives of sports betting are.
In addition, you may want to take a few hours to review a basic statistics book. I also refer to this from time to time to keep the following points of view in mind.
The first is what is the probabilty the team A will win. This is determined by various methods of guessing outcome of a various event. In the major sports, the odds makers are very good. There goal is to attract equal amounts of money a team to win a game. This is very true in NFL. If one assumes that the point spread is fairly accurate to make the game appear to have a 50% chance that either team wins, then you could flip a coin and you would be fairly close to winning half of the nfl bets you make.
Of course, you will lose money with this method, the example is to prove a point.
The second statiscally issue is that of variation or deviation from an expected norm. Simply put, what aspects of the game will cause it to deviate from a normal outcome.
Is a team more turnover prone, will a good run defense limit the scoring of a heavily weighted run offense, are there emotional factors, player records, team records, etc.
Lastly, there are numberous writings on gambling bankrolls.
I sugguest that you reveiw a few of these theories
