About bryan bartman Expertise I can answer sports handicapping questions relating to specific matchups in college basketball, college football, pro football, college football, and baseball. Any match up can be studied by the use several handicapping models that can be explained in detail.
Experience Over 20 years use databases to create sports handicapping models to assist in predicting the outcome of sporting events
I'd always assumed that, when Las Vegas sets a sports line, the line represents what the odds makers feel will be the spread that will elicit balancing bets, so that the bookie doesn't care who wins, he goes for the vigorish..
However, I recently read that the odds makers determine the spread by their assessment of the true difference between the teams on the day/night of the event.
It seems to me that this would mean that the (initial) spread would often not reflect how betters feel and that the bets would be unbalanced.
What am I missing?
Many thanks,
Steve
nighttrain@nyc.rr.com
Answer The standard method of operation of most sportsbooks is to attempt to create a line that will generate a balance of wagers on both sides of a game, or convert the odds (amount wagered to win) to balance the games.
However, their has been evidence that does show that two other spins are in place, especially in off-shore carribian casinos. Since the costs to license and start up a casino off-shore is inexpensive, some sportbooks, are really bettors that are taking sides on games. They simply determine who they think will win, slightly adjust the line to solicit funds on the winners opponent, and let their customers bet for them.
The second issue, is that on lesser hyped events, their maybe no way to solicit enough bets to cover the sides, casinos will display lines based on expected results early and move line later in day as a means to balance the event.
