Expert: Michael Troy - 3/23/2004

Question
I have heard it said that empires "fall from within." Is this cliche generally true? If so, what are the commonalities that precede demise?

I have been told that disintegratiion of the family structure upon which a culture is based, ever increasing taxation and personal and national debt all contribute. Is this true?

Are there balanced and reliable writings on the subject?

Answer
Hi there,

There are lots of different reasons why great empires fall apart.  Many are destroyed by even bigger empires (e.g. Egypt or Greece being destroyed by the Romans).  The fall of the Roman Empire is often blamed on its loose morals and a greater interest of the citizenry in sex and entertainment than in preparing themselves for defense against the barbarians that eventually ran over them.

In more modern times, the Soviet Empire fell in part because it could not keep up economically with the West and because its leadership no longer wanted to use military might to keep its subjects in line.

The British and French lost their colonial empires after WWII mostly because they became more trouble to manage than they were worth.

There is often a corrolation between societal breakdown and economic instability, but to me that is more of a sign of trouble than a cause.  For a rich and powerful country to fall, it first must actually be rich and powerful.  Poor nations collapse all the time (e.g. Haiti has had something like 30 revolutions in the last 200 years).  No one pays much attention to that.  

Breakdown of family is often more of a sign of national wealth than of imminent collapse.  In poorer countries, many families stick together because they have few other options.  If a poor uneducated woman in Bangledesh leaves her husband, she will probably become a begger or die.  Therefore, she is likely to put up with a lot more abuse and misery from her husband that face the alternative.  Similarly, children often depend on entering the family business in order to find a place in the economy.

When a nation becomes quite wealthy, it often puts social welfare programs in place to help its citizens.  Women have more choices available to them when they leave their husbands, and children are not as dependent on their parents for a career once they reach adulthood.  They also have more employement options that can take them far from their parents.  Therefore, the breakdown of the family is often a sign of wealth, not necessarily imminent collapse of society.

Consider that the Greeks and Romans engaged in homosexuality and adultery for decades before their empires crumbled.  British and other European Royalty were known for their loose sexual morals for many centuries.  That seemed to have little to do with the strength of their empires. Germany had quite a large and open gay and transvestite community before Hitler came to power and made them a huge power.  He enforced a much stronger family structure on Germans (encouraging marriage and large families, disfavoring divorce) up until the time his Empire collapsed under the allied assault.

Increased tax and debt may be a sign of trouble.  A rich country usually has a good credit rating.  People want to lend it money or invest in it.  Therefore, it is likely to more easily get into heavy debt before a collapse.  But creating large debt in the first place usually requires a stable economy in which people are willing to lend others money with some reaonable expectation that they will be paid back.  In a society without a strong stable economy, such loans would be foolish.

I think much of what you heard is drawnd from the writings of the Greek Phlosopher Plato.  In "The Republic" Plato discusses the trends of society moving from democracy to anarchy, to dicatorship, to oligarchy.  He cites taxation and debt as a stage in moving from democracy to anarchy.  You might want to give that a read.

I hope this helps!
- Mike