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About tbaarr
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I answer only public questions so all can benefit . I do NOT endorse any of the website ads that will bring you to my answers. I have started a blog called ..AS Tbaarr Sees It.. tThats the only site where I might benefit from any ads,see below for the address. I dont care about ratings as i am not here to make you buy a service from me... If you want my opinion just ask me... I was a askme.com expert who was consistantly in the top ten.... I have found my screename,on google,being used without my permission to promote scottrade and other garbage... Ask me here first before you try any service that is claiming my screename or using it as a link.... PLEASE let me know at my webpage or blog.... http://www.geocities.com/tbaarr/night_vision.html.. .. http://www.tbaarr.blogspot.com/ ....So i can go after them Thank you MY BROKER OF CHOICE IS CHARLES SCHWAB

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I retired in 1996 at the old age of 39 by using city based utilities and leap call options. on stocks like ibm and wal mart because you can control these stocks for 2 years for ten cents on the dollar.
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You are here:  Experts > Money > Online Brokerage/Banking > General Stock Investment Strategies > Making the Most of the Dow

General Stock Investment Strategies - Making the Most of the Dow


Expert: tbaarr - 10/14/2008

Question
Emotion and herd instinct seem to often rule the stock market, as appears to
have happened in the most recent selloff. As someone who's stayed away
from the market partially as a result, I thought last Friday was an opportune
time to finally make an investment in an attempt to ride the Dow or S&P 500
back to more reasonable levels. Figuring over the next 5 years or so stocks
would likely provide a better return than a couple of CDs I've been holding, I
wanted to make such an investment but didn't know the proper market
vehicle and mechanism to do so. In the event, the Dow once again slips back
down to 8500 (or lower), can you recommend what product(s) would be most
appropriate for such a strategy--and where am I best advised to buy them
(allowing me to quickly make such a purchase in a timely fashion and tying it
to the Dow, etc., at the appropriate moment)? Would some kind of index
stock fund be the best vehicle--or would some other product be better? And
what's the best way to buy it? And, by all means, if you have any other advice
on this subject feel free to share it. Thanks!

Answer
In my opinion the oex and other index options are like playing poker.

so lets answer the question based on texas holdem poker

you have 3 of a kind and there is a possible straight on the board

the pot is 100

is it worth 8 bucks or 16 bucks to see if you can bully the person playing for the straight

out of the hand

now for the market

I recently bought oex options

I made a value bet

I bought 2 600 buck jan oex

and I am planning to be out in nov no matter what

I spent 300 a contract on 3 contracts

they are already worth 400

the dow at 10,000 will have the oex at around 520 best case

oex is at approx 477 on 10/14

now the 580 oex jan option  the oebap,is selling for 500

so a 20 buck move in the oex is gonna give me 100 more in profit

based on 5 -10  oex points per 100 dow points

I see 9900 on the dow as being 497-505 on the oex

that will be my out point, most likely

the jan oex call is oebap for the 580 strike

and oeyat for the jan 600

I suggest you base you buy on 20% max of your earned profit no more

I only spent 10% as ITS A GAMBLE

look at the oex jan 540-580 as each bid ask telss you what you can make

IE

the 540 is say 1000 bid and the 560 asks 850

so if you get a 20 buck move in the oex or 400 dow points min

your 850 buy becomes a 1k sell or 150 per contract profit

ie 18%

THIS IS HOW I VALUE THE OEX

Its your choice how you play

good luck

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