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For a small uni research project i have obtained monthly observed sea surface temperatures from the 1800's till present day for the Atlantic. I then obtained future monthly temperature projections of sst based on the ipcc's future emission scenarios rp26 -80 in the same region of the atlantic. The aim is to see if there is a higher frequency of days in the future where temperatures exceeds 27 degrees, increasing the likelihood of hurricane formation. Any ideas on how to present this data and is there any statistical test i could run?

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Hi Christian

You will need storm data as well then run correlations between sst and storm frequency/severity.  Thus if you can a correlation you can then forecast the same going forward based on predicted sst into the future.  You should look for other cycles such as sun spot cycles to see if there are other correlations.  Perhaps an Atlantic version of La Niņa/el Nino in the pacific.  Check out salinity readings for the Gulf Stream and see if this has an impact.  

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Ralph Salier

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20+ years in Business Anthropology working all over the world. Background in Archaeology and Anthropology.

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