AboutPierre-Alexandre De Bavay M.A. Expertise I can answer any question that deals with geopolitics, political stability and the role of big powers in the Middle East. My strongest background deals with the Israeli-Palestinian conflict but I have a good knowledge of the region going from the Caucasus to Egypt, the Arabic Peninsula and Central Asia. Even if your question does not directly deal with this, I will try to answer it anyway.
Experience I worked for the Center for American Studies in Brussels and for the European Institute for International Relations as political analyst.
Organizations CAS, EIIR
Education/Credentials BA Political Science
MA International Relations
MA American Studies
My question is regarding Iraq's relation to Israel, in particular to the various peace initiatives involving Israel. As I understand things, Iraq has a tentative sort of democracy, currently (and for as long as the U.S. maintains a significant military presence in Iraq, I suppose). Has there been any talk of or leaning towards Iraq participating in any of the peace plans which have been proposed regarding Israel and various Arab neighbors of Israel (Syria, Lebanon, the "Palestinians", etc.)? If so, how likely is it that Iraq would actually agree to any sort of peace or treaty with Israel? And, if so, how soon before such an agreement might take place?
Thank you for your time and consideration.
Sincerely,
Douglas J. Bender
(Elkhart, IN)
ANSWER: Hi Douglas,
Good question. As you underline, Iraq is merely at the very beginning of a supposed democratic transition. Yet, we have to wait for the US troops to leave and examine whether such a process will go on without major difficulties such as conflict between the various communities. As regards relations with Israel, things are not very clear at the moment. The US government did surely pressure Iraq not to get involved too much in foreign politics at the moment. This is mainly due to the fact that Iraq truly lacks a coherent policy towards other countries. However, there have been significant improvements in that domain since 2003. The Iraqi government dared to talk with Israel about the oil issue but there has been no agreement. I also remember the former Iraqi PM Allawi to have refused to get involved in a dialogue with Israel in 2004. It would therefore be a mistake to think that the Iraqi government relations with Israel are only influenced by the US. It only seems that such relations are not a priority for the moment.
Hope this helps.
---------- FOLLOW-UP ----------
QUESTION: Mr. De Bavay,
Thank you very much for your reply. I was quite surprised, and pleased, to see my question answered so quickly. Thank you again.
I am curious, though, how likely you think it might be for the Iraqi government (assuming the situation remains roughly as it is now) to enter into some sort of peace agreement with Israel. Is there any motivation or impetus for Iraq to join with, say, Lebanon or Syria or the Palestinians in agreeing to peace with Israel? Would economic leverage from, say, the European Union (particularly, the Mediterranean Union ["Euro-Med"?]) have any influence in the matter, especially regarding Iraq's relations with Israel. That is, would the Mediterranean Union offer some sort of "carrot/stick" incentive for Iraq to agree to peaceful relations with Israel?
I hope you don't mind all my questions. I just need to refine my understanding of the issues and dynamics involved.
Sincerely,
Douglas
Answer Hi again,
Always pleased to help when I can, that is why I am here for.
As you probabely know, all peace agreements in the Middle East have been influenced by the various states' taking part to it. Now the question is : does Iraq has any interest in discussing with Israel about some sort of peace initiative ? On a geopolitical scale it surely does, even if Iraq does not have any border with Israel like Egypt or Syria do. Iraq would benefit from the fact that the region would become more secure mainly because it would attract both commercial activities and economic stability. But on the other hand, Iraq is not as concerned about peace as the other Muslim states bordering Israel. Iraq's interest in such an initiative would therefore be more indirect and not that important either.
Iraq is still experiencing a lot of difficulties with neighbouring states such as Turkey which partly invaded the north of the country a few years ago because of Kurd rebels. At the same time, the border with Iran is extremely permeable since 2006 (that is when US troops stopped focusing that much on the border). Those are serious problems that need solving and it might explain why Iraq has no strong interest in participating concretely to a peace plan with Israel at the moment.
As regards the Euro-Med incentive, I am not sure that Iraq is even concerned by it (if you are talking about the Barcelona process of 1996). At the time the agreement was made, Saddam Hussein was still under embargo. The EU foreign policy is still not very coherent, especially in a case like Iraq. In fact this country is still partly under US troops rule, and I do not think that the EU would be willing to implement and incentive strategy in a country which is not stable enough at the moment. This is something we will be able to examine in a few years.
