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About Donald Rosenfeld
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Any questions (except private) answered from the 1st grade level on up pertaining to any aspect of Weather. I am a 20 year member of the American Meteorological society and a long time forecaster of eastern United States snow storms and Hurricanes.

You are here: Experts > Science > Weather > Meteorology (Weather) > I know it's a long shot

Topic: Meteorology (Weather)

Expert: Donald Rosenfeld
Date: 5/8/2008
Subject: I know it's a long shot

Question
Hi Donald,

I know it's a long shot but I was wondering if there is any way of predicting the weather for the weekend of the 14th June 08 in Surrey, England.

I am due to marry my fiance that day and would love to be able to tell her that it is due to be a sunny day!

Many thanks

Jon Hughes

Answer
Hi John

The date is too far in the future for an accurate forecast.

Forecasts of between 4 and 7 days can be given accurately depending on the season and location.

In the winter season, the storm systems move faster thus making accuracy fall off after a few days.

Summer is easier with accuracy as much as several days attainable.

The location factor has to do with the geographic proximity to the storm track; southern locations typically are more distant from storminess.

You can check back with me when we get close to the event and I'll be happy to give you a forecast; or, you can use this link which will give you a computer generated forecast:

http://www.weatherknowledge.com/long_range_forecast.html

or, to get a general idea of likely conditions way in-advance, try climatology at:

http://www.worldclimate.com/

and, to get an idea of what NOAA thinks for the month involved, take a look at:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/images/euPrecProbMon...

and

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/images/euT2mProbMon....

Hope this helps!

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