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Meteorology (Weather)/Accuracy of a weather forecast

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Question
Hi,
I'm from Ontario, Canada, I'll be going camping at the end of next week (July 17-24) and I'm hoping for some good weather. We will be in Parry Sound Ontario. How accurate is the long range weather forecast as of today? The Weather Network is predicting rain for the first two days we will be there. Any insight is appreciated. Thank you!

Answer
Hi Laura

Forecasts are very accurate 1 to 3 days, 4 days to a week are pretty good and beyond that the accuracy falls off significantly. That said, in summer months when weather systems are less intense there can be a higher prediction accuracy then in winter months.

Looking at:

http://meteocentre.com/models/get_panel.php?mod=ecmwf&run=00&stn=PNM&map=na&lang

it looks like the 21st, 22nd & 23rd may be cooler and some showers around.

To see & keep up with that & other forecasts, take a look at the links below:

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/country/Canada.html

Below: use the 16 day forecasts for other trips at:

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/country/

and

http://weatherknowledge.com/long_range_forecast.html

Have a nice trip!  

Meteorology (Weather)

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Donald Rosenfeld

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Any questions (except private) answered from the 1st grade level on up pertaining to any aspect of Weather. I am a 20 year member of the American Meteorological society and a long time forecaster of eastern United States snow storms and Hurricanes.

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