Expert: Thomas Griener - 10/2/2006

Question
Hi,

I was doing an assignment for physics which requires me to explain whether or not meteorology is indeed a science.  My thoughts are that given the complex mathematical processes and years of study finding patterns, I think it is.  However, there are certain ways in which meteorology is not a science.

I was just wondering what your thoughts were on this.  Consider that science, almost by definition, means the ability to isolate certain variables and carry out experiments over and over again to test theories and hypotheses.

Consider also that weather is still rather unpredictable (science seeks to predict) and that a weather pattern cannot truly be recreated in a lab environment.

So.  Does the art of predicting weather based on trying to figure out the best answer using incomplete and overly complex mathematical equations that are still too complicated to offer great predictability, make it more of an art or a science?

Answer
Hi Jasmine,   As you point out meteorology is not an exact  science owing to the fact that initial conditions on the computer models can never be totally complete. However the fact that we can predict with the accuracy we currently have is quite extraordinary! The physical and dynamic principles of physics have proven that to a degree weather is quite predictable. Long range forecasts of over two weeks may never be very accurate due to the butterfly effect,meaning initial conditions,but long term averages above or below normal for instance will undoubtedly improve! Hope this helps.