Probability & Statistics/Is this correct?


Is the following correct?:

There are two possibilities regarding the supposed evidence meaning that the theory is true: it is true that the supposed evidence means the theory is true and it is false that the supposed evidence means the theory is true. If there are 7 pieces of supposed evidence the probability of all the supposed evidence not meaning the theory is true is 1 in 2^7 (128).

This is not correct. For example, I could make up a theory that says "tomorrow's seven winning lottery numbers are 13, 23, 25, 29, 33, 37, and 39."

There are seven pieces of information, but the probability of winning the lottery is NOT 1/128. Each event or "piece of evidence" is not necessarily going to happen with 50% likelihood. These events may also be codependent in some way.

Probability & Statistics

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Clyde Oliver


I can answer all questions up to, and including, graduate level mathematics. I do not have expertise in statistics (I can answer questions about the mathematical foundations of statistics). I am very much proficient in probability. I am not inclined to answer questions that appear to be homework, nor questions that are not meaningful or advanced in any way.


I am a PhD educated mathematician working in research at a major university.


Various research journals of mathematics. Various talks & presentations (some short, some long), about either interesting classical material or about research work.

BA mathematics & physics, PhD mathematics from a top 20 US school.

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Various honors related to grades, various fellowships & scholarships, awards for contributions to mathematics and education at my schools, etc.

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In the past, and as my career progresses, I have worked and continue to work as an educator and mentor to students of varying age levels, skill levels, and educational levels.

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