About Herdt Christian Expertise I`ll answer all question concerning west-European telecom stocks and the major U.S. telecom stocks. Questions may be more fundamental then technical based.
Experience I follow the stock market's daily for over 3 years now. I study Trading science & Corporate knowledge with option ICT. I've read tons of books about both fundamental and technical analysis.
Education/Credentials Trading science & corporate knowledge with option ICT.
Expert: Herdt Christian Date: 12/29/2000 Subject: Telecoms outlook for 2001?
Question Dear Christian
I am an enthusiastic investor of Telecoms stocks here in South Africa.
I have a few questions:
1) What is your outlook for Telecoms stocks in general in 2001?
2) Which do you prefer, mobile or fixed line? and why?
3) In the case of mobile cellular operators, do you think that they can continue impressive growth for the next 5 years, or do you think that their markets are becoming saturated?
Looking forward to hear your thoughts....
Regards
Irnest Kaplan
ikaplan@sgsj.co.za
Answer Dear Irnest,
Thanks for writing.
Well I don't really know the situation about Telecom's in South Africa. (Do know that they have good wine over there.) But I'll give you my thoughts of the projected future for telecom stocks in Europe and the U.S. markets in 2001. As you know the UMTS licenses have caused severe cash damage to the European mobile and some fixed operators. Only Vodaphone Airtouch won this race more or less victorious. We don't know what the prices, profits & revenues will be of this new technique so investing in Telecom for the moment will be a pretty dangerous job. Analysts opinions are very mixed. I do think that shares like Deutsche Telecom (DT nasdaq & DTE.FRA Frankfort) and Sonera (SNRA nasdaq) are well undervalued. If you will read some company reports you'll notice that there are a lot of Company's undervalued due to a lack of cash. You can expect the 1st rising prices in telecom in April 2001. Probably Vodaphone, DT, SNRA, NOK, and others... If you really want to take an extreme risk take a look at GTS. But never HOLD them above 3 - 3.5$ Cause the Belgian railway company wants to sell an important stake @ 5$ Also keep an eye on Nokia ones the UMTS circus starts rolling. They invest great deal in R&D for UMTS networks and cell phones. Keep in mind that Cell phones is still their biggest Revenue. Market Capitalisations is still rising.
Conclusion: If you want to invest wait until the end of January, so you can feel the vibe of 2001. Try to figure out the company's intentions and the sector intentions for 2001. There are many undervalued company's if you pick one of these, if you like it's intention for 2001, fundamental and technical analysis don't disappoint. (Use growth indictors and ratios to figure out their potentials, expect high growth flows!) Buy in February and keep in mind that the circus starts rolling in April.
Hope this is somewhat of an answer to your questions,
