You are here:

U.S. Politics/Who has the best chance of being U.S President?

Advertisement


Question
Do you have an opinion on who the 2 candidates will be this fall and who will win the Whitehouse ultimately?

Thanks,
James

Answer
Hi James,

Please pardon the delay in responding: I figured that I might as well watch the debate last night before replying since it may help me answer your question!

I think the most accurate way for me to answer is to show you what I think is the relative likelihood of each candidate's chances to win the nomination. My scale is 0-5, with 0 meaning absolutely no chance of being nominated and 5 meaning most likely to win at this point (but things can certainly change at any time). Of course this is all just my opinion.

Republicans:

Trump - 5
Rubio - 4
Cruz - 3
Christie - 3
Bush - 0
Kasich - 0
Paul - 0
Fiorina - 0
Huckabee - 0
Carson - 0
Santorum - 0

Democrats:

Clinton - 5
Sanders - 4
O'Malley -0

I think that if Sanders wins in Iowa and New Hampshire then at that point he will become the likely nominee. Sanders big weakness right now is support from minorities, but that will likely change if he wins two back-to-back victories in the first elections. Sanders has at least two high-profile African American advocates who will help him with outreach efforts (rapper Killer Mike and scholar Cornel West). I think that the public's distrust of the political establishment and a desire for fundamental change have the potential to result in nominating non-traditional candidates in both parties. Although predicting these contests is always tricky, that's my assessment right now!

I appreciate your question, James!

- Marc  

U.S. Politics

All Answers


Answers by Expert:


Ask Experts

Volunteer


Marc Aperio

Expertise

I'll be glad to answer any question related to US politics, regarding domestic or international issues.

Experience

I've studied US history and politics for nearly 20 years. I'm currently also volunteering in the American, European, and Medieval history categories.

Publications
My newest book is called (REAL QUICK) HISTORY (https://www.amazon.com/dp/B01MYOKUZT) I've also written: WE NEED TO TALK: 27 DIALOGUES ON RACE IN AMERICA is available in the Amazon Kindle store. http://www.amazon.com/dp/B01E69CUUI AMERICAN REVOLUTION 2016: RATIONALE AND AIMS FOR RADICAL CHANGE http://www.amazon.com/American-Revolution-2016-Rationale-Radical-ebook/dp/B00MI9H9VE

Education/Credentials
BA History (High Honors)

©2016 About.com. All rights reserved.