U.S. Politics/Can Trump Win ?


Hello Marc.
I live in England and, like the rest of the world, am struggling to grasp the fact that Donald Trump is doing so well.
Is there a website you could recommend that will give opinion poll results on likely voting intentions, not so much percentages as I understand that it doesn't work that way in the USA, but on how States are likely to vote.


Hi Mark,

I'll be glad to help with your question. I recommend Real Clear Politics because it gives a straightforward presentation of reputable polls:


As you may have heard, what matters most are the 11 "swing states" or "battleground states," so-called because they don't inevitably vote Republican or Democrat. So, I recommend http://www.politico.com/2016-election/swing-states which conveniently furnishes information about the trends in those states (the 11 states are named at the bottom of that page).

It's worthwhile noting that Trump became the Republican nominee not by having the most votes but rather by having more than his competition. That is, only a tiny fraction of the entire American electorate has voted for him. So, the prominence of his position is not necessarily reflective of his support, which is a flaw in our system (in my view). Trump is mainly appealing to working class white men. But, as analysts have pointed out, there simply aren't enough in that population to outvote all the people who are likely to support Hillary Clinton. Of course, as we have seen, anything can happen. But, the consensus is that the odds favor Clinton. Finally, for the next several weeks the polls will likely be influenced by the political conventions. To the extent that political polls are considered reliable, the ones published after September 1 will be the most potentially insightful.

I hope that this is helpful!

- Marc

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Marc Aperio


I'll be glad to answer any question related to US politics, regarding domestic or international issues.


I've studied US history and politics for nearly 20 years. I'm currently also volunteering in the American, European, and Medieval history categories.

My newest book is called (REAL QUICK) HISTORY (https://www.amazon.com/dp/B01MYOKUZT) I've also written: WE NEED TO TALK: 27 DIALOGUES ON RACE IN AMERICA is available in the Amazon Kindle store. http://www.amazon.com/dp/B01E69CUUI AMERICAN REVOLUTION 2016: RATIONALE AND AIMS FOR RADICAL CHANGE http://www.amazon.com/American-Revolution-2016-Rationale-Radical-ebook/dp/B00MI9H9VE

BA History (High Honors)

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